Legislation is not enacted in a vacuum. Successful advocacy strategies begin with understanding the political context in which proposed climate-related policies are to be debated and acted upon.

Squabble, squabble.

Congress is back from its Easter break, and things are as messed up as they left it. As has been the case over the past months, the chaos in the House continues to negatively impact Congress' ability to respond to the critical issues of the day, including how to handle funding for Ukraine, Israel, and humanitarian aid for Gaza, and whether building new LNG export facilities in the US will be part of the deal. 

Speaker Johnson's life has been made more uncomfortable by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene's (R-GA) filing a motion to vacate the chair. She's accusing Johnson of conspiring with Democrats to pass the 2024 appropriation bills. Greene's gripes are the same as when Matt Gaetz (R-FL) moved to oust McCarthy. The motion has been filed, but Greene has not asked for a vote. She's allowing it to hang over Johnson like a Damoclean sword.

The far-right House Freedom Caucus and other Trump (MAGA) aligned members of Congress are angry because Johnson isn't holding the line on the America First agenda, which doesn't include any continued support for Ukraine's war with Russia.

Two and possibly three legislative issues will dominate the congressional agenda for the next two or three weeks. And time is something of the essence in both. In addition to the supplemental aid bill is the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) and federal funds to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland.

The foreign aid bill may have implications for US natural gas, which I'll explain more briefly. FISA "allows US intelligence agencies to intercept communications involving suspected foreign agents and terrorists without a warrant, including any conversations they may have with American nationals."

Former President Trump is demanding that Republicans let the authority lapse. He claims his campaigns were spied on using the authority of the act. Although the act's powers have been abused, there's no evidence to support Trump's claim.

Johnson’s first attempt to extend the authority for warrantless surveillance provisions was defeated by right-wing Republicans voting with the Democrats. Democratic opposition to the bill was because it included an “unrelated resolution condemning President Biden’s border policies.” It seems that the far-right folks in the House don’t have a problem voting with the Democrats when it’s to kill Republican proposals. (Just an observation.) Expect this to be a repeated pattern on other legislation.

The issue on the Key Bridge is a question of money. What isn’t these days? Some MAGA-aligned members are questioning why the federal government should contribute to the reconstruction—claiming it's the problem of the city and state. The bridge is a critical link of the eastern seaboard highway system. (For more on the bridge issue, see here.)

It could prove tricky when it comes to voting against federal help. It's the Key Bridge now, but what happens if some natural or terrorist disaster occurs in a Republican district? We'll see which Republicans believe in the Golden Rule of law as events unfold.

Will new LNG facilities be a part of the foreign aid supplemental?

The foreign aid bill drama is ongoing. The Senate passed—in a bipartisan manner a clean supplemental for a total of $95 billion. It included funding for Ukraine, whose war effort is seriously hampered by Congress' failure to approve additional funding for its defense.

It's complicated. Republicans continue to support Israel, while the Democrats are more divided. Biden is getting pressured by members of Congress, his own administration, and voters to take a hard line on Netanyahu's refusal to allow humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza during a declared ceasefire.

The deadly attack on humanitarian aid workers from the nonprofit World Central Kitchens seems to be a catalyst for politicians particularly in the US and the UK to up their pressure on Israel. David Cameron, Britain’s top diplomat, was in the US to encourage a rapid passage for Ukrainian aid and probably to suggest that both countries hold back weapons shipments from Israel until the humanitarian crisis is meaningfully addressed. Senator Sanders (I-VT) has introduced legislation to that effect.

Although Cameron met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Secretary of State Blinken, Senate Minority Leader McConnell and others in Congress, Speaker Johnson said he was too busy to meet with the Brit. Is it a tell of things to come, or did the speaker simply not want to give the ultras something else to add to their indictments?

Speaker Johnson has said he supports aid to Ukraine but wants something in return. He wants President Biden to lift his objection to new natural gas export terminals. According to POLITICO: "Republicans could claim they'd extracted a concession that undercuts Biden's climate agenda, the thinking goes, it would deliver them a rare unifying message heading into the election."

Johnson is going to have a tough time selling that idea. Biden's pausing approvals on new projects is an essential element of his climate policies. A retraction of the pause would significantly weaken his support within the climate and clean energy communities—especially youthful voters.  

New LNG facilities are unlikely to sway hard-right House members, who appear unalterably opposed to continued aid to Ukraine. It's not to say that Johnson can't convince them or somehow sweeten the deal. The speaker also suggests that assistance to Ukraine could be in the form of a loan—much like Roosevelt's structured support for England and Europe in WWII.

Another possibility would be that border security and immigration provisions would be added to the foreign aid supplemental. The Senate bill gave the GOP much of what they wanted. The bill also had Biden's support.

The complication here is that Trump opposed the bill mainly because he didn't want to give Biden credit in an election year—actually ever—for new border security laws. Once he made his position known, House and Senate Republicans followed suit. So, it's unclear what Johnson might be able to add that doesn't get pushback by the former president.

Johnson and a fair number of moderate and establishment House Republicans seem committed to foreign aid. The speaker is going to have to rely on the Democrats to pass a bill, which is going to trigger (more) pushback by Greene and the other MAGA-aligned Republicans. It may be enough for Greene to ask for a vote on her motion to vacate. (More on this in a moment.)

Will the Democrats sweeten the foreign aid bill in some way to allow Johnson to claim credibly that some of the conservative agenda has been added? Maybe, but whatever it is, it must also be acceptable to the Senate and the White House.  

To his credit, Johnson has moderated some of his far-right positions in favor of getting something done. Former Republican House Speakers McCarthy, McCarthy, Ryan, and Boehner all suffered the same malady. It seems something about being the Speaker of the US House of Representatives causes collaboration. Must be the water.

Johnson has explained that the America First agenda can't be done all in one step. Smaller steps will get us there, is his mantra. I'm guessing there's no satisfying the fifty or so hard-liners or Mr. Trump.

Greene and other MAGA-aligned House members have enough clout to jam things up in the rules committee. However, it's possible to bring a bill to the House floor for a vote using a discharge petition. The petition needs to be signed by a majority of the House—which is a bit fluid these days.

The Republican majority is about to be a single vote—down from the five it started with at the beginning of the 118^th Congress. The reason for the narrowing is early retirements by Republican House members, who are frustrated by the chaos. At full strength, there are 435 members of the House, of which 218 is the majority. With the early retirements the partisan breakdown is 217Rs to 213Ds, with a new majority of 216 votes when all members are present and voting.

It's not just the moderates like Mike Gallagher (R-WI) who are sending a message. The very conservative Ken Buck (R-CO) opposed the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary, Alejandro Mayorkas because he had done what the president asked him to do, which is his job.

Ultimately, I'm guessing a foreign aid bill will be enacted, possibly with something that allows Johnson to point to as a conservative accomplishment. It's hard to overstate the urgency of Ukraine's need for additional support. They're said to be running out of artillery shells.

Many Republicans are nervous about Greene's having filed her motion to vacate. Although it's much less likely that another speaker will be sent packing before the November elections, another ousting debate will continue the chaos in the lower chamber. There are concerns that the turmoil will lead to the GOP losing the House in November.

Johnson seems unconcerned about the possibility of being vacated. There are rumors afoot that he's discontented with all the bickering and doesn't care much either for the travel, fundraising, and phone work that comes with the job.

If things weren’t already weird enough, Johnson “told Fox News there is a slim chance he could lose the speakership to Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries in the next few weeks amid a wave of early retirements.”

In any event, until FISA, foreign aid, and the Key Bridge are settled not much else will get done on Capitol Hill.  

The Biden administration is doing a lot to implement as much of Biden’s climate agenda as possible. Look for future Views to cover what’s going on at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.

And that's it for this edition of Climate Politics: The View from Washington.

Photo by Mikkel Bergmann on Unsplash  

Legislation is not enacted in a vacuum. Successful advocacy strategies begin with understanding the political context in which proposed climate-related policies are debated and acted upon.

Congress finally passed a FY2023 appropriations bill for six federal agencies. The vote on the package was 339-85. The package includes the following funding bills: Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration, and Related Agencies; Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies; Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies; Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies; Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies; and Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies.

The text of the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2024 is available here. A complete summary of the appropriations provisions in the bill is available here. Community Project Funding included in the package is available here.

Congress has until March 22^nd to pass appropriations for the remaining six federal agencies. Although the ultra-conservative members of the House Freedom Caucus (HFC) and other MAGA-aligned conservatives in both the House and Senate are crying foul and calling their own members profligates, they didn’t have enough clout to stop the passage of the first tranche of appropriations. It’s a sign that re-election jitters are finally hitting Republican members of Congress.

The second appropriations package of six agencies may encounter turbulence from the far right. As reported by the Hill, “Senators in both parties are warning that a political food fight over funding for the Department of Homeland Security could cause a partisan government shutdown this month. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said that ‘Homeland is absolutely the toughest’ of the bunch but pointed out all of them are getting weighed down by fights over additions being pushed by House conservatives.”

Congress will need to pass the second package if it hopes to remove the threat of automatic cuts kicking in because of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (Act). To avoid automatic cuts on programs, actual appropriations bills—as compared to continuing resolutions—must be passed for FY2024.

Will the passage of this current year’s appropriations be enough to convince voters in swing districts that Republicans can govern? That’s yet to be seen. In part, it will depend on what happens next. The ultra-rights in the House may pick some other target to focus on. Speaker Johnson seems to be giving them free rein on the impeachment of President Biden and Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas and the investigation into Hunter Biden. In the cases of the president and Mayorkas, Republican investigators seem to be coming up with no actionable evidence of conduct that would rise to an impeachment requirement of a high crime or misdemeanor.

One thing all GOP members of Congress agree on is that President Biden’s $7.3 billion FY2025 budget will never pass Congress. As a matter of tradition, a president submits his spending proposals following his State of the Union (SOTU) message to Congress while opposing party members cry “Dead on Arrival!”

There’s no chance that Congress will pass Biden’s spending plan. White House budget proposals—especially in an election year—are really just about messaging.

The president’s budget proposals reflect his continued support for clean energy and environmental policies and programs. Climate-related budget items in the proposed budget include:

• $8.5 billion across the Department of Energy to support researchers and entrepreneurs to develop clean energy technologies in the areas of offshore wind, industrial heat, sustainable aviation fuel, and grid infrastructure.

• $455 million to strengthen the use of artificial intelligence within the energy sector. 

• $4.1 billion for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) while allowing states to use these funds to provide water-bill assistance to low-income families.

• $1.5 billion for the Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Air and Radiation to further regulate air pollution and waste.

• $8.2 billion for the Department of Energy to address legacy waste and contamination in communities, as well as funding for the EPA to enforce the Toxic Substances Control Act. 

• $1.6 billion to the DOE to support clean energy jobs and infrastructure projects. 

• $23 billion in climate adaptation and resilience. Funds are also included to help farmers, ranchers, and forestland owners meet production goals in the face of climate change.

• Funding the expansion of the American Climate Corps over the next decade is also a priority. The intent is to add 50,000 more ACC members annually by 2031. 

• Commits $11 billion to international climate finance, with $3 billion allocated to finance the Green Climate Fund – a UN-created program that would help developing countries to create adaptation and mitigation practices to counter climate change. 

• Assumes enactment of the administration’s request for $300 million in supplemental funding for 2024 to safeguard the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. 

• $142 million to deploy clean energy on federal lands and waters, which would also support the leasing, planning, and permitting of solar, wind, and geothermal energy projects and transmission infrastructure. 

• $22 million for technical support, studies, and habitat restoration activities to restore fish species in the Columbia and Snake River basins. 

• $200 million for environmental planning, consultation, and migratory bird permitting under the Endangered Species Act – an increase of more than $40 million above the 2023 enacted level. 

Thinner is the word that is coming to characterize the GOP’s majority in the House. Congressman Ken Buck (R-CO) is calling it quits earlier than first announced. Buck had announced that he wouldn’t run for re-election at the end of his term. It turns out that he’ll be leaving at the end of next week (March 22nd).

With his departure, “Republicans will outnumber Democrats 218 to 213 in the House. That means Republicans can afford to lose only two votes to pass legislation along party lines when everyone is attending and voting.” A special election to fill Buck’s remaining term will be held on June 25^th.

Buck is leaving because he’s disappointed by his many fellow Republicans continuing to lie about who won the 2020 presidential election fair and square. According to the representative:

“Our nation is on a collision course with reality, and a steadfast commitment to truth, even uncomfortable truths, is the only way forward. Too many Republican leaders are lying to America.”

·        Representative Ken Buck (R-CO)

To date, 21 House Republicans, including Buck, are retiring from this Congress or seeking other offices; the number for the Democrats is 23, according to a roster maintained by the House Press Gallery.

POLITICO is reporting that “prominent conservatives have devised a road map to cement climate policy rollbacks under a future President Donald Trump. Chief among their targets: exiting the Paris climate agreement for good.”

According to POLITICO, “The idea, included in a 920-page policy report, is to pull the United States out of the 1992 treaty that underpins the Paris deal, known as the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. That would be a serious step beyond what Trump did during his first term when he exited the Paris Agreement but continued sending delegations to the annual U.N. climate talks.”

The Party of Lincoln is now solidly the Party of Trump. The Republican National Committee is now firmly in the former president’s hands with the election of co-chairs Michael Whatley as Lara Trump, the former president’s daughter-in-law. The new co-chairs wasted no time culling 60 current staff across all departments. It was characterized as an “absolute blood bath” by someone in the know.

As reported by The Guardian, “the firings are part of a strategy to ensure that only staffers committed to Trump and the Maga movement are left at the RNC as Trump tightens his grip on the party ahead of the presidential election in November.” Only those willing to claim that the 2020 election was stolen from the former president need apply.

Finally—The Hill’s Judy Kurtz reports, “People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) would like to overhaul the annual White House Easter Egg Roll by doing away with the main ingredient.” PETA is proposes using potatoes as egg substitutes. PETA President Ingrid Newkirk suggests that a “potato roll” wouldn’t “exploit any sentient beings and would encourage empathy and kindness to animals while supporting potato farmers in the U.S.” So far, neither the National Potato Council nor the Idaho Potato Commission have indicated support for the idea—but PETA is hopeful.

And that’s it for this edition of Climate Politics

Image courtesy of the Famous Idaho Potato Tour

Legislation is not enacted in a vacuum. Successful advocacy strategies begin with understanding the political context in which proposed climate-related policies are debated and acted upon.

Update: The Senate voted 77 to 13 to approve the short-term extension that funds some government agencies for another week, through March 8, and others until March 22. The House passed the bill earlier by a vote of 320 to 99. The president has said he will sign the legislation.

Six of the 12 annual spending bills will now need to be passed before the end of next week. The leaders said the one-week extension was necessary to allow the appropriations committees “adequate time to execute on this deal in principle” and give lawmakers time to review the package’s text.

Republicans and Democrats are once again playing a game of political chicken over government funding. Who will blink first?

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Congress is again facing a potential government shutdown because House Republicans won’t play nice with each other—or with the Democrats. According to the terms of the current Continuing Resolution (CR), bills covering military construction and the Departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Affairs come due on March 1^st. The bill for the rest of the government comes due on March 8^th.

The dates are different, but the game’s the same. The ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus (HFC), along with other MAGA-aligned members, are demanding significant budget cuts, and they want to add riders on the appropriation bills that reflect Trump’s America First agenda.

The Hill reports that the House Freedom Caucus has written House Speaker Johnson (R-LA) with a list of more than 20 policy riders they want added to the annual appropriation bills, e.g., zeroing out Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’s salary, blocking the Pentagon’s ability to reimburse the travel costs of service members who obtain abortions and defunding elements of the Biden administration’s climate agenda. The Democrats said for months that these are all non-starters.

The members of Congress most nervous a shutdown are Senate Republicans and House GOP moderates. Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) keeps saying: “Shutting down the government is harmful to the country. And it never produces positive outcomes — on policy or politics.” West Virginia Senator Shelley Moore Capito (WV) was a bit more blunt —

“Shutdowns, I say repeatedly, are always a bad idea. It doesn’t help anybody, it’s just a misery march.”

President Biden will be meeting with House and Senate leaders over the next several days. However, you have to wonder how much incentive there is for President Biden and the Democrats to be overly compromising in their efforts to avoid a government shutdown that Republicans will be blamed for and which will serve as a fresh example of their inability to govern.

McConnell and Capito are right. The GOP always takes it in the neck for closing down the government. A Republican-inspired shutdown could be just what Biden needs to shift the national dialogue about how old and infirmed he is to how incapable of governing the Republicans are.

Typically, what happens when Congress can’t agree on appropriations a Continuing Resolution(s) is passed at the 11^th hour. If history repeats itself, Congress will pass the fourth CR covering the current fiscal year.

As if things weren’t already complicated enough, Congress’ failure to pass appropriations bills by the end of April will trigger across-the-board cuts in the federal budget that can result in reductions in excess of five percent on climate-related discretionary spending.

The Fiscal Responsibility Act could become the far-right’s Plan B for cutting back programs.

Should Congress not pass a government budget before April 30^th, the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA or Act) would result in significant funding cuts. “It would also rescind remaining government funds on a range of measures related to COVID-19 and tighten work and training requirements to receive certain kinds of assistance, specifically the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.” (Forbes)

Should the FRA’s provisions be triggered, it would cut non-defense discretionary spending by $40 billion (approximately 5.4 percent)[i]. The reduction limits non-defense spending to $704 billion, down from last year’s level of $744 billion. Compared to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline, this is a reduction of $111 billion, and it is $105 billion below the president’s request. (House Budget Committee)

According to the White House, it budgeted $44.9 billion in discretionary authority for addressing the climate crisis and advancing environmental justice. The number includes investments in clean energy innovation ($12 billion) and deployment of innovative technologies. Other discretionary programs include a solar manufacturing accelerator, the addition of 1,500 firefighters to enhance community resilience, and cost-reduction strategies for low-income families.

Just as a Republican-forced shutdown could benefit Democrats in the immediate term, triggering the cuts in discretionary spending through the FRA could serve as an incentive for MAGA-aligned Republicans as a back door into substantial reductions in non-defense spending.

The impact of budget cuts falls hardest on federal discretionary spending because everything else is either a mandated expense, e.g., Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, supplemental nutrition assistance, federal civilian and military retirement benefits, and unemployment insurance, or an interest payment.

Debt service is the second biggest cost to taxpayers. In 2022, debt service cost the government $476 billion—up from $352 billion in 2021. (Tax Policy Center) The Washington Post estimates that interest on the debt could become the biggest expense within three years.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but there’s only so much blood you can get from turnip. Should investing in new clean energy technologies be discretionary? I guess it depends on your definition of “discretionary.”

So, let’s talk a bit about the roiling winds on Capitol Hill—starting with the continuing saga of House Speaker Johnson.

Will House Speaker Johnson be “McCarthy’d”?

Once again, Johnson is faced with a choice between keeping the government open and MAGA-aligned members of his Republican House caucus former Mr. Trump off his back. It’s not the first budget rodeo for Johnson as House speaker. However, not much has changed from few months ago with the exception that nerves are more frayed and frustration levels keep rising. So, the situation is volatile.

If the speaker wants to keep the government open, he’ll need Democratic votes. If he does that, there’s no telling what all the MAGA-aligned representatives will decide to do—including the attempt to oust Johnson the way they did McCarthy.

Johnson is being called inept and even less flattering things. His conference members talk about his inability to make decisions. He thinks he’s being collegial as he solicits opinions, while they think he’s making excuses. It’s not a good combination, even at the best of times—which these are not.

Johnson’s trouble is not just from the far-right. Moderates and Reagan Republicans are also questioning his ability to lead. It’s resulting in weekly announcements by many traditional GOP politicians like Representative Mike Gallagher (R-MI) who won’t be running for re-election. For the Michigander, the last straw was the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. (See below)

The budget is a problem until it’s settled, and there are political crosswinds. There are also limited scenarios for what will happen between now and the end of the fiscal year (September 30^th).

Congress can keep passing short-term Continuing Resolutions. It can also enactan omnibus long-term resolution and be done with it all. Then, too, there’s passing the 12 appropriation bills the way the system was designed. Of the options, this is the least realistic.  

The unknown is whether the uber-right will force a shutdown. The majority and minority leaders of both chambers have met with the president to discuss a strategy. Although none was forthcoming, everyone seemed to say no one wanted to see the government close.

Will they finally say, “Enough is enough,” and do something more dramatic like closing down the government the way Trump did as president?

There are murmurings that Representatives Marjorie Greene (R-GA) and Matt Gaetz (R-FL) are considering a motion to vacate the chair if Johnson continues to work rely on Democratic votes to get things done. So far, these are just mutterings. Should it come to pass it would kick the rest of the legislative year into a cocked hat, at least before the November elections.

Biden’s supplemental request for Ukraine, Israel, Gaza (humanitarian), and border security.

It’s not as if the federal budget is the only hot ticket item Johnson has to deal with. The supplemental appropriation for aid to Ukraine, Israel, Gaza (humanitarian), and border security is also hanging fire. Although the speaker says he supports aid to these nations at war, it’s unclear how he’ll accomplish that in the face of Trump’s opposition.

Not only is Trump against supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself from Russia, he’s quoted saying that as president, he wouldn’t come to the aid of any NATO nation behind in its organizational dues—a number he pegs as equal to two percent of their GDP. He’s gone so far as to say that he would encourage Russia to attack them.

Trump continues to oppose any new border security measures as part of a supplemental foreign aid bill. Just weeks ago, Republicans said it was at the heart of their demands for supporting the foreign aid supplemental.

The Senate has now passed a $95 billion foreign aid bill that stripped the border security provisions out of the bipartisan bill. The vote was 70-29. There are also bipartisan efforts on the House side to pass a pared-down bill that would cover aid to Ukraine et al. and address some border protections.

Nothing will happen on the foreign aid bill—with or without border security measures—if a bill can’t make it onto the House floor for a vote. Not everyone in the Republican House conference is opposed to the supplemental requests.

There’s talk of an effort to do an end-around the House Rules Committee with a discharge petition. The maneuver requires an absolute majority (218) of the House to sign the petition. It’s a rarely used procedure because getting members to vote against their party’s leadership is difficult and comes with political risk. To succeed, five Republicans, along with all of the 213 Democrats, would need to sign on. Even disgruntled Republican representatives would have second thoughts about bucking the speaker and former president on the end-around.

Impeachments

Having been impeached by the House, Secretary Mayorka is now awaiting action by the Senate. McConnell and Senate Republican Whip John Thune (R-SD) are calling for a full Senate trial. There’s no chance that Mayorkas will be found guilty. His only transgression is being a member of Biden’s cabinet. It’s theatre—and not even good theatre.

The House Republicans impeached the Homeland Secretary over Democratic policies they oppose, not for anything amounting to a provable high crime or misdemeanor. Several Republican senators, including Murkowski (R-AK) and, Capito, believe a trial would be “a diversion from important work.”

The House Oversight and Judiciary Committees are focused on President Biden’s son, Hunter. According to The Hill, Hunter is at the center of the Republican inquiries into the president's impeachment. Republicans allege that Hunter “engineered an elaborate web of lucrative business ventures overseas that leaned heavily on his father’s international influence — and that the president himself has benefited financially from those shady arrangements. No evidence has been presented.”

A canary in the coal mine?

Shockingly, Senate Minority Leader McConnell has just announced that he would be stepping down as the Republican Senate (Minority) Leader in November. Unlike former House Speaker McCarthy, the 82-year-old Kentuckian intends to finish out his term.

In a speech on the Senate floor, McConnell said it had been a difficult time for his family after the loss of his wife’s younger sister. The senator is married to Elaine Chao, who served as Trump’s transportation secretary. The couple have frequently been the targets of Trump’s acid tongue. The former president has been known to use in his public rantings the racist epithet “Coco Chow” for his former transportation secretary.

Before his announcement, it was being reported that McConnell’s peeps were talking to Trump’s about the minority leader’s 2024 endorsement of the former president. He’s facing increasing pressures from inside his conference. Thirty-two Senate Republicans—including most of his leadership team—have already endorsed the former president.

The former president has long made it known that he would like to see the Kentuckian replaced as Senate Republican leader with someone more to his liking. McConnell has made at least half of the ex-president’s wish a reality.

It’s anyone’s guess if McConnell will find some way to rationalize endorsing Trump; he’s been clever that way in the past. If he does go through with it, it will be because he sees it as critical to Republican chances of a GOP takeover of both the House and Senate.

That he is even considering it is compelling evidence that Trump’s grip on the GOP is nearly complete. McConnell’s announcement comes on the heels of Ronna McDaniel (forced) retirement as chair of the RNC. Her replacement will be a Trump loyalist.

I’ll be updating this article over the next few days as events dictate—so readers should check back in in a few days—or sign up on Civil Notion for automatic updates.

***Update*** After publication of the original article a short-term extension of the Continuing Resolutions covering the departments of Agriculture, Justice, Commerce, Energy, Interior, Transportation and Housing and Urban Development through March 8.

The agreement also extends funding for six annual funding bills, which cover the departments of Labor and Health and Human Services, the Pentagon, and other offices through March 22.

The extensions are not done deals. They still need to be approved by voted on by both chambers.

Readers should note that the agreement divides the 12 appropriation bills into two tranches of six.

That’s it for this edition of Climate Politics: The View from Washington. Look for updates in the coming days.

Image courtesy of Hana Oliver on Unsplash.

Readers note: I hope you find my commentaries useful—or at least amusing. If so, I’d appreciate your following me on any of the sites where you see my articles, e.g., Linkedin, Medium, illuminem, and Civil Notion.

Thanks, I promised my mother I’d make something of myself and could really use your help.

iThe percentages vary depending on the method of measurement. The Committee for Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the reductions could be as much as 9 percent from FY2023 numbers.

Legislation is not enacted in a vacuum. Successful advocacy strategies begin with understanding the political context in which proposed climate-related policies are to be debated and acted upon.

Overview

Congress is back from its holiday recess. Although it’s a new year, Capitol Hill politicians are facing many of the same old problems—beginning with efforts to avoid a partial or complete federal government shutdown.

Congress has eleven days before the first check comes due on the Continuing Resolution (CR) that’s currently keeping the government open. On January 19^th, funding for 20 percent of the federal government, including the Departments of Energy and Interior, will run out. The remainder of the government can continue until February 2^nd.

Over the weekend, Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) and House Speaker Johnson (R-LA) agreed to a top line number of around $1.66 trillion and the passage of needed appropriation legislation. In essence, it’s the same deal that former Speaker McCarthy (R-CA) and President Biden agreed to ahead of the 2024 fiscal year and as part of the debt-ceiling deal.

The agreement is a step forward but hardly a final or timely temporary solution. Although Democrats support the it, the uber-conservative House Freedom Caucus and other MAGA-aligned representatives are threatening to prevent it from being put into force because it fails to meet their demands—including significant cuts in discretionary spending, immigration reform, and language that erases any “woke-inspired” policies, e.g., federal support for abortions.

If Congress is to avoid the one percent across-the-board spending cut mandated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) it will need to pass all 12 appropriation bills before February 2nd. According to the FRA, the spending cuts will  automatically “go into effect on May 1^st unless Congress passes the full-year appropriations bills.” A new CR will trigger the cuts. To date, none of the bills have made it through Congress and onto the president’s desk.

Can the House pass four appropriation bills to meet the January due-by date and eight more by the beginning of February? Those are good question and, for the moment, most in Washington are dubious of Speaker Johnson’s ability to unite his Republican conference behind the agreement.

Johnson’s put himself in a really awkward position. Far-right House members are not wrong when they say their demands aren’t being met. For many Republicans and Democrats in Congress, it’s a good thing.

The far-right faction, from which Johnson sprung, has clearly stated that any goodwill they were willing to give the speaker was used up when they didn’t stand in the way of the current CR.

Truthfully, Johnson hasn’t gotten any significant concessions on appropriations from the Democrats. As “wins” for the conservative cause, the speaker points to $10 billion in cuts to the IRS and from a $6.1 billion COVID-era fund, claiming the number is $30 billion less than funding bills written by the Senate.

Johnson’s examples of conservative wins aren’t likely to be enough for the far-right. Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) believes the latest agreement is “even worse than we thought.” Harsher comments from Trump and MAGA-aligned House members are being made almost hourly.

I have to believe that the uber-right in the House is asking itself, “If not now, when?” Johnson is trying to appease Roy and other MAGA-aligned members with his support for the investigation into the impeachment of the president and sweeteners like those in his deal with Schumer. These are Trump’s forces—not Johnson’s. Whereas ousting yet another Republican speaker isn’t in the cards (anytime soon), disruption and chaos are.

Whether passing the 12 appropriations to avoid a shutdown and potential across-the-board cuts or reopening the government after it’s closed down, Johnson will need the help of Democrats. Acts that will further alienate him from House Freedom Caucus members and other Trump allies.

Implications for the climate community

Any substantial cuts in climate-related programs are unlikely to happen. The greatest risk for federal climate policies and programs will be found in the language of the legislation, as compared to the dollar numbers. Examples would include curtailing the Department of Energy’s loan guarantees for solar and battery manufacturers, stopping the buildout of the needed electric vehicle infrastructure, and preventing the use of federal funds to regulate power plant emissions.

There is also a risk to climate-related programs should the across-the-board cut be triggered by Congress’ failure to pass appropriation bills. Senator Patti Murray (D-WA), who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, released the following estimated impacts should the cuts occur—they’re far more than a single percent would seem.

·        For defense programs, a date-change, full-year CR would mean $26.5 billion (3%) to $36.5 billion (4.1%) less than the amount agreed to under the Fiscal Responsibility Act—and even more when compared to the Senate Appropriations bills.

·        For domestic programs (excluding VA medical care), a date-change, full-year CR would mean as much as a 9.4% cut—or more than $70 billion in cuts to vital domestic programs that help families put food on the table, keep our communities safe, and keep our country running and competitive.

It’s critical to keep in mind that Trump has already made electric vehicles and wind turbines part of his “schtick,” as well as a desire to drill, drill, drill as a one-day dictator. Climate and clean energy will remain one of his targeted priorities throughout the 2024 campaign.

Finally

The Republican House majority is getting thinner, while the 18 GOP representatives who won in districts that voted for Biden are getting nervous. McCarthy has left the building having resigned at the end of December. His departure has lowered the Republican House majority to just three votes. A special election to fill the remainder of his term won’t happen until May. The Republican fabulist George Santos was kicked out of Congress earlier, and it’s being reported that Representative Bill Johnson (R-OH) is leaving to become president of Youngstown State University.

At some point, Johnson has to decide where his responsibilities lie—to party, person, or country. When he agreed to the current CR, he decided country. Having done it once, will he do it again—despite pressure from Trump? That’s the $1.6 trillion question.

In the meantime, buckle up; there’s turbulence ahead.

That’s it for this edition of the Climate Politics: The View from Washington.

Legislation is not enacted in a vacuum. Successful advocacy strategies begin with understanding the political context in which proposed climate-related policies are to be debated and acted upon.

It’s the last week Congress will meet before heading home for the holidays. Much like the weeks since the beginning of the current FY2024, this week’s activities on Capitol Hill will be about money and conflict politics--particularly in the Republican House conference. I’ve also added a few miscellaneous bits to keep on the radar.

The Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA)

It’s being reported by multiple sources that House members from both parties continue to wonder where the deal between the White House and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) on spending stands.  

House Speaker Johnson has indicated in a letter to the Republican conference that the Fiscal Responsibility Act is “the law of the land” that “provides the framework for spending talks. The agreement goes to the top-line amount of money Congress has to appropriate for the federal government’s business.

The uber-conservative House Freedom Caucus (HFC) and their MAGA allies are “dialing up the heat on Johnson to hold the line, demanding in a Friday (December 8th) letter that any deal on a top-line level for government funding for fiscal 2024 ‘significantly reduce total programmatic spending year-over-year.’”

HFC is telling Johnson that he owes the Democrats nothing and should not be bound by the deal that former Speaker McCarthy struck with the White House. All eyes are on Johnson to see how he manages his own conference. His lack of experience may be his biggest problem here—along with the fact that he seems conflicted over where his loyalties as Speaker of the House of Representatives lie—to the party or the country?

Final appropriation decisions won’t be made until after the new year when the second session of the 118^th Congress begins. The possibility of a full or partial government is real. The Democrats still believe that any shutdown—or even the appearance of continued chaos in the House—benefits them come election time. The message will be Republicans can’t govern.

The Democrats’ current message is offered up by Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI).”

A deal is a deal. I think there’s no way we’re going to get an appropriations

deal if people can’t hold to their commitments.

Freedom Caucus members are making noises much like those they made before McCarthy was ousted from the speaker’s chair. The ubers hated the McCarthy-Biden deal for two reasons. First, there were no significant cuts in discretionary spending. Second, the deal was passed with the help of the Democrats.

The mantra of the ubers is we don’t vote with the Democrats! From the moment McCarthy made his first bipartisan deal, he was branded a heretic to the far-right cause.

Johnson has already shown a willingness to work across the aisle—the continuing resolution (CR) keeping the government open passed by a vote of 336 to 95. More Democrats than Republicans voted for it.

Johnson has been doing what he can to show he’s still a member of the far-right club. He’s going along with efforts to impeach Biden and has now endorsed Trump in 2024. However, none of what the speaker has been doing in this regard will keep his conservative credentials current if he doesn’t bust the agreement that McCarthy made. Although he’s unlikely to be ousted anytime soon, it doesn’t mean his far-right members will follow his lead.

Whatever Johnson does, there’s turbulence ahead. The first appropriations deadline in the CR is January 19^th, and the second is February 2^nd. A rolling shutdown is a strong possibility if no congressional and presidential action is taken. If the House ubers don’t get their way, they appear ready to shut the government down just to show they can. In the meantime, the Senate is waiting on House action.

There are several other elephant-sized issues guaranteed to launch partisan battles over the coming month(s), including funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gaza (humanitarian), and Asia, as well as border security.

Republicans in both chambers want to tie significant immigration reform to these other issues. The administration and Democrats on Capitol Hill want to bundle them to provide cover for less popular expenditures, e.g., Ukraine. President Biden has indicated a willingness to compromise on border security—whether the Republicans are is still an unanswered question.

Other things in the mix should be factored into any predictions of what’s around the corner in January. Former Speaker McCarthy is scheduled to resign at the end of this year. Coupled with the departure of George Santos, it makes an already thin GOP majority thinner. Another Republican is leaving in February to go to academia. (See here for more details.)

House Republicans voted to launch a formal impeachment inquiry against President Biden. The vote was along party lines with 221 Republicans voting in support with 212 Democrats in opposition. Leaders of the effort are expecting a host of legal challenges and thought it wise to begin a formal inquiry. To-date, there appears to be no evidence suggesting that Mr. Biden has done anything worthy of impeachment.

Any efforts of House Republicans to impeach Biden will keep the pot boiling. So far, no evidence supporting the various alleged claims has been found. It doesn’t mean the Democrats will be any easier to deal with.

The House Freedom has a new chairman. Representative Bod Good (R-VA) is its new leader. Good has endorsed DeSantis for president. The former president is unlikely to ignore that fact. Look for it to complicate Johnson’s efforts to control his conference.

Climate-related issues and events.

Should the final appropriation numbers be closer to the Senate than the House, many, if not the overwhelming majority, of the current climate and clean energy programs will continue as they are, with major new regulations being proposed, e.g., power plant auto emissions.

The administration has been very aggressive in getting climate-related funds, e.g., from the Inflation Reduction Act, the infrastructure, and the CHIPS and Science bills, out the door and into the hands of the states. Money spent can’t be returned.

However, it will be difficult for the administration to make good on any new commitments, e.g., making good on any dollar contributions agreed to at COP28, e.g., the $3 billion for the Green Climate Fund.

In ESG news. According to CNBC, “a House panel subpoenaed The Vanguard Group and Arjuna Capital [it’s] the latest step in its yearlong investigation into whether investment funds’ environmental, social and governance policies violate antitrust laws.” 

Vanguard and Arjuna are investment firms offering funds focused on environmentally friendly businesses. The chair of the Judiciary Committee, Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH), claims the firms “have entered into collusive agreements to ‘decarbonize’ its assets under management and reduce emissions to net zero in ways that may violate U.S. antitrust law.”

A taxing situation. Industry and advocacy groups are calling for changes to a carbon sequestration tax credit, otherwise known as “45Q,” citing gaps in federal policy that could threaten the rollout of the nascent technology.

Led by the Carbon Capture Coalition –companies are” calling for “small-scale” changes to the tax credit, which works to incentivize investment into carbon capture and sequestration projects.”  It’s being argued missing elements within the provision could” impede the economy-wide deployment of these technologies.”

COP28 and the GOP. A Republican delegation showed up over the weekend at the UN climate summit. As reported by The Hill, “Republicans say they want to show both Americans and the world that gas, nuclear, and mining can be climate solutions.”

Representative Kathy Castor (D-FL), who chaired the no longer Select Committee on the Climate Crisis, appeared to have doubts about Republican intentions. Castor expressed her hope that they were “in the spirit” of the summit.  

Things on the radar.

The Hill is reporting that “some of the House’s most high-profile progressives are facing a growing primary threat next year over their position on the Israel-Hamas war.” Jamal Bowman (D-NY) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN) are among them. Could AOC be next?

Who looks to win the special election to fill the seat left vacant by George Santos, who has been drummed out of the House for multiple ethics violations? Before Santos, there was Tom Suozzi (D-NY), now the Democratic candidate. Should Suozzi win, it would shift a vote to the Democratic House conference.

According to a Politico reporter, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) might not care if he sinks Biden. The senator’s brand of centrism helped him survive West Virginia’s rapid transformation from blue to red. Manchin isn’t running for re-election. He’s decided to pursue other interests—like possibly running for president as the No Labels candidate. In the meantime, look for him to wield a sword against anything he considers too progressive.

Members of Congress are calling it quits. According to Ballotpedia, 31 members of the House (10Rs, 21Ds) and 7 (2Rs, 5Ds) in the Senate have indicated they wouldn’t be standing for election in 2024. Many cite the impossibility of governing in this age of hyperpartisanship as their reason.

And that’s it for this edition of Climate Policy: The View from Washington.

Image courtesy of the Architect of the Capitol.

·        A thinning Republican House majority

The past week in Washington saw the expulsion of a member of the House—George Santos—for only the sixth time in U.S. history. The expulsion vote followed on the heels of the House Ethics Committee report accusing Santos of “defrauding donors and enriching himself with his campaign.” The fallen representative is facing a slew of 23 federal charges, including wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds, and lying to Congress.” Among other things, Santos was found to have used campaign funds for Botox injections and Ferragamo footwear.

House Speaker Johnson told Republican House members they were free to vote their conscience. Although Johnson and 111 other House Republicans voted against the expulsion motion, 105 GOP representatives joined with 206 Democrats. An expulsion requires a two-thirds majority.

Notwithstanding statements about his not being found guilty in a court of law, it’s likely that the slim Republican House majority was a major factor in the thinking of Johnson and others when it came time to vote. A special election will be held. In the meantime, the GOP House majority is down to eight—making it more difficult for Johnson to pass legislation without Democratic support.

The Hill is reporting that the Republican House majority may be getting thinner still with the intended resignation of Representative Bill Johnson (R-OH), who has been hired to head up Youngstown State University. It’s now official that former Speaker McCarthy will be leaving Congress midterm at the end of the year.

McCarthy remains royally p****d over his ousting. He’s following a well-trod path. Foremer Republican Speakers Boehner and Ryan packed up after having tired of dealing with the Freedom Caucus. The last straw that may have cemented his decision to leave is the willingness now of the uber-conservative House Freedom Caucus to accept the $1.59 trillion federal budget number that he negotiated with President Biden and was booted by way of thanks.

McCarthy is not alone in his fury. Other members of the Republican House conference are wondering why they went through over three weeks of turmoil to end up where they first began—with the exception of a new speaker.

Should McCarthy resign from the House before the next election, the GOP’s nine-vote majority would shrink to six, with the exits of Santos and Johnson. The numbers may go back up again—as both McCarthy’s and Johnson’s districts are safely Republican. However, the vacancies will precede the elections, leaving Johnson with a weaker hand.

·        The focus of the FY2024 appropriations debate is now squarely on the 12 bills.  

The Freedom Caucus has now indicated its acceptance of the total $1.59 trillion that Biden and McCarthy agreed to in September. The Caucus’s acceptance removes a major problem for House Speaker Johnson—making it arguably possible to meet the January and February deadlines in the two-step Continuing Resolution passed by Congress just before the Thanksgiving recess. (See here for the specifics of the CR) The focus of the appropriation debates is now squarely on the twelve appropriation bills.

House and Senate passed FY2024 appropriation bills.

Overview

Below are the appropriations for the Department of Energy’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) programs and the totals for Interior, Environment, and related agencies. I’ve listed the dollar amounts as examples to show the considerable differences between the House and Senate versions.

The Senate bills have bipartisan support, whereas the House bills were passed along party lines. Total appropriations are central—however, equally important is the language of the legislation.

The House looks to limit severely the regulatory actions of the Environmental Protection Agency, supports fossil fuels, and curtails EERE programs that support clean energy alternatives—including the efforts to clawback Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) funds.

The bills will go to a Senate and House conference committee for reconciliation. The differences between the bills are considerable. Readers should note that Congress has until the January 19, 2024 deadline to pass the reconciled bill.

Should the House or Senate reject the reconciliation numbers, Congress must pass another Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the agencies open. Speaker Johnson told Republicans no more CRs when he was whipping votes in support of the resolution.

The Freedom Caucus may force the issue, putting Johnson in the position of having to rely on Democrats for the passage of the reconciled legislation. Should that happen, Johnson could be faced with a motion to vacate the chair for the same reasons, e.g., collaboration with Democrats, that conspired to oust McCarthy from the speakership.

House Appropriations:

The House of Representatives met to consider H.R. 4394, The Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies Appropriations Act. The House approved the measure by a vote of 210 to 199.

The Energy and Water Development and Related Agencies bill provides $56.958 billion in discretionary spending, $2.963 billion below the FY24 President’s Budget Request. 

The House appropriations bill rescinds $5.58 billion of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

EERE would receive $2.994 billion for FY2024, including several programs the administration proposes to fund separately. The House level would constitute a decrease of $466 million (-13%) from the FY2023 amount and $1.798 billion (-38%) below the president’s request. The House committee bill would rescind $5.700 billion in previous EERE energy efficiency appropriations in the Inflation Reduction Act (P.L. 117-169).

Total cuts for EERE would amount to around 42 percent.

The total budget for Interior, Environment, and related agencies is $25.417 billion. (HR 4821)

Senate Appropriations:

The Fiscal Year 2024 Energy and Water Development Appropriations Act provides $58.095 billion in total funding for the Department of Energy, Army Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, and independent agencies.

The bill provides $3.686 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, $227 million above fiscal year 2023. It includes increased funding for wind energy, water technologies, and advanced manufacturing to strengthen our global leadership in renewable energy technologies and manufacturing.

The total EERE budget reflects an increase of $227 million over FY2023.  

The total budget for Interior, Environment, and related agencies is $42.86 billion. (S. 2625)

·        Biden administration releases proposed tax credit rules for electric vehicles (EVs) with prohibitions on vehicles with components made in China and other targeted countries.

The White House tightened domestic sourcing requirements within the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which prevents EVs from qualifying for the full federal rebate if a certain percentage of their components or raw materials are produced by a “foreign entity of concern,” namely China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

The Treasury Department announced proposed regulations governing EV tax credits. The proposed rules would bar EVs from qualifying for subsidies if their batteries are made in China or with Chinese materials.

The updated guidelines will also prevent U.S. automakers from relying solely on technology licensed from businesses in one of the previously mentioned countries, largely in response to a now-suspended partnership between Ford and Chinese battery manufacturer CATL.

As reported by E&E News, “Automakers, environmentalists, and some lawmakers greeted proposed rules for lucrative electric vehicle tax credits with a sigh of relief, saying the administration’s strategy will likely allow some cars and trucks to qualify for the rebates.

“An auto industry trade group Friday said the proposed rules, which aim to block hostile countries and companies from EV supply chains, wouldn’t undercut the 20 vehicles that currently qualify.”

However, “the Treasury Department’s proposal hit a sour note with Republicans, some mining companies, and Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who helped write the tax credit provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act.”

Manchin has taken exception to the proposed provisions that make exceptions for certain trace critical minerals, which the Treasury Department said comprise less than 2 percent of essential minerals used in batteries.

According to Manchin:

“The proposed Treasury rules on Foreign Entities of Concern are another example of the Biden administration clearly breaking the law to try to implement a bill that it could not pass.”

Expect Manchin to try to block the regulations from becoming final through a Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution.

·        Impeachment of President Biden

According to The Hill, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) boosted the House GOP’s efforts to hold a vote on an impeachment inquiry into President Biden, saying Congress “has a duty” to bring the issue to the floor.

Johnson based his statement on what he called “evidence so clear” that “you cannot look away.” In an interview on Fox & Friends Weekend, he also indicated that “The Constitution requires the House to follow the truth where it leads. We have a duty to do this. We cannot stop the process.”

There seems to be some disagreement over what the investigation has turned up, to-date, on President Biden. Witnesses that have testified before the House Oversight Committee have indicated that there is no there, there when it comes to the president. The actions of Biden’s son Hunter may be a different matter.

The impetus for Johnson jumping on the impeachment bandwagon seems mostly to be his belief that it will be viewed by the uber-conservatives as a quid pro quo—at least a partial one—for their no longer opposing the $1.59 billion total appropriations figure negotiated by McCarthy and Biden in September. Johnson’s willingness is also geared to appeasing and appealing to ex-President Trump.

There is a difference of opinion within the Republican House conference as to the wisdom of impeaching Biden. Moderates believe it will be viewed by voters as spite and performative politics by the GOP leading to losses in the 2024 congressional elections.

·        COP28 US commitments

As reported by Bloomberg: “The U.S. will pledge $3 billion toward a United Nations fund meant to help developing countries slash greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change — an effort that could help rebuild trust in rich nations’ promises of aid amid pivotal climate talks in Dubai.

The pledge of support for the Green Climate Fund, described by State Department officials ahead of a planned speech by Vice President Kamala Harris at the COP28 summit Saturday, would come on top of $9.3 billion in new commitments by the UK, France, Germany, Japan and other nations.

President Biden may have trouble making good on the $3 billion pledge given Republican opposition—particularly in the House. Any promises by the administration are somewhat suspect by other nations and climate activists, given the possibility of a second Trump administration.

It doesn’t take a seer to predict that Trump will announce on Day 1 of his second administration that the US will no longer be a signatory on the Paris climate accord and the negation of any dollar assistance proposed by President Biden.

That’s it for this edition of Climate Politics: The View from Washington.

Image credit: Jose Fonatno on Unsplash

A note to readers: Legislation is not enacted in a vacuum. Successful advocacy strategies begin with understanding the political context in which proposed climate-related policies are to be debated and acted upon. With this in mind, “Climate Politics: The View from Washington” will become a regular feature on the Civil Notion website.

November 8, 2023. With a new speaker—Mike Johnson (R-LA)—finally in place, the House of Representatives has returned to work. Johnson and House Republicans have much to prove after three weeks of chaos and vitriol toward each other. Based on his early actions and statements, it appears Johnson favors the legislative agenda of House ultra-conservatives.

Speaker Johnson’s conservative credentials are impeccable. Most importantly, they are more believable than McCarthy’s ever were to the lower chamber’s far-right members like Representatives Jim Jordan (R-OH), Matt Gaetz (R-FL), and the former president.

Gaetz, who started it all with his motion to vacate the chair, has lauded the selection of Johnson as speaker. “The swamp is on the run, Maga is ascendant, and if you don’t think that moving from Kevin McCarthy to Maga Mike Johnson shows the ascendance of this movement and where the power of the Republican party truly lies, then you’re not paying attention.”

However, Johnson’s impeccable credentials won’t save him from the wrath of the far-right. The “evil eight” that laid McCarthy low and the rule allowing a single representative to file a motion to vacate the chair are exactly as they were before. if the first week of his speakership is anything to go by, Johnson is as far-right as any of the other three candidates rejected before him.

The House MAGA (Make America Great Again) constituency seems willing to cut Speaker Johnson some slack to keep the government open—possibly through early 2024. The ultras appear to understand that the three weeks it took to elect Johnson was not the GOP’s finest hour.

The major issues Congress and the White House must resolve over the next several weeks are all about money. Looming large is the November 17^th expiration of the continuing resolution that’s been keeping the doors of the federal government open for business since the beginning of the current fiscal year (October 1). The funding resolution proved to be McCarthy’s downfall.

The speaker prefers the House to pass twelve individual appropriations bills rather than multi-agency omnibus packages. In recent interviews, Johnson has indicated that “Congress continues to work ‘in good faith’ toward its November 17 appropriations deadline to avert a government shutdown.”

Should all the individual bills not be passed, he’s willing to support a stop-gap resolution ending on January 15 or possibly as late as April 15. The Senate has other ideas. It’s considering passage of a continuing resolution ending in mid-December. It’s not the only conflict between the two chambers. The bills, for the most part, keep funding relatively level. The truth is there are multiple “fixes” being considered—none of which has yet to emerge as the winner.

While House Republicans bickered among themselves, the Senate Appropriations Committee passed all twelve appropriations bills. According to the committee, “seven of the Senate’s twelve appropriations bills cleared Committee unanimously—and all bills passed with overwhelming bipartisan support.”

The full Senate has already passed three appropriations bills “funding military construction and the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.” As to the nine remaining bills, it’s being reported by The Hill that leading Senate appropriators are considering combining the nine appropriations bills into “one large ‘maxi-bus’ to be brought to the floor to avoid a government shutdown or long-term stop-gap measure.”

Johnson continues to favor taking up and passing twelve individual bills. But with only ten days left before the current funding resolution lapses and significant differences between the House and Senate versions, it’s hard to imagine how Congress can complete its appropriations work before the November 17 deadline.

The Senate is using the higher total funding levels agreed to by President Biden and former Speaker McCarthy as part of their negotiations on raising the debt ceiling. House Republicans are disowning the agreement and pegging their total number below that of FY 2023. Republican House appropriators have their knives out to cut or radically reduce funding for climate-related policies and programs

The House version of the $34.8 billion Interior and Environment appropriations bill (HR 4821) “would rescind $9.4 billion in Inflation Reduction Act funding provided to EPA,...and the Council on Environmental Quality.” The bill would also cut funding for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) by nearly 40 percent. The Department of the Interior is looking at a budget reduction of $677 million.

As reported, a rider sponsored by the far-right representative from Texas, Chip Roy, and others would summarily reverse any of President Biden’s executive orders on climate change. Something that would surely violate the separation of the legislative and executive branches.

An amendment from another ultra-conservative, Congressman Ralph Norman (R-SC), would prohibit funding for the administration’s newly created American Climate Corp. The Corp’s aim is to employ tens of thousands of young people to fight climate change. 

House conservatives proposed 100 amendments to the legislation reported out of the Republican-controlled appropriations committee—most of which were rejected. However, they offer insight into the thinking of MAGA legislators about climate change. Examples of amendments that didn’t make it into the House bill include prohibiting the removal of monuments from Interior Department lands. The failed amendment was proposed by a leading MAGA maven—Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA),

In support of her amendment, Greene declared:

“For too long, communist Democrats have been hellbent on erasing our culture, our way of life, and our history, whether we agree with it or not.” 

Although I would phrase it differently, I share with Ms. Greene her concern that we do ourselves a disservice by hiding from history. Context is critically important to understanding what went before. History teaches us what to look out for lest we repeat those mistakes.

Amendments that made it into the bill include prohibiting the use of federal funds to promulgate more strident vehicle emissions, blocking power plant emission rules, and stricter soot standards while mandating new oil and gas lease sales on public lands.

The Interior and Environment bill “notably boosted or sustained funding for certain bipartisan priorities such as wildland firefighting; the Payment in Lieu of Taxes program; and the Bureau of Indian Affairs, Bureau of Indian Education and Indian Health Service.” The proposed increases are being funded by reductions in other programs and policy areas, e.g., EPA.

President Biden has now sent to Congress a supplemental request for nearly $106 billion in aid to Israel, Gaza, and Ukraine, as well as for border security and countering China’s claims over Taiwan. The request also includes funds to compete with China’s Belt and Road lending to developing countries.

Johnson is opposed to a single bill, and the House has now passed a stand-alone $14.3 billion aid package for Israel. However, it comes with a substantial string attached. The speaker proposes to “pay for the spending with $14.5 billion in cuts to the long-understaffed Internal Revenue Service.”

The bill will be dead on arrival in the Senate. President Biden and the Democrats, as well as Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) and a host of Republicans, want to keep the $106 billion aid package together.

Johnson favors funding for Ukraine, unlike Trump and many of the ultra-conservatives on Capitol Hill. Isolationism is part of what the former president and his core supporters peddle to voters. It’s a policy opposed by Democrats and many establishment Republicans, who believe that no nation—especially the US—can afford to be an island.

Those who favor allied support for Ukraine tend to see the conflict in a more historical context. It’s hardly hyperbole to suggest that what Russia is doing smacks of what Hitler did on the way to World War II. There are multiple reasons for a single piece of legislation. Some are political, while others respond to the urgency of various situations. Russia and China would capitalize on the uncertainty caused by drawn-out debates over individual funding bills.

If what Johnson is willing to include in an appropriations package for Ukraine, Taiwan, and border security is known, it’s not being reported now. Whatever the outcome of the Israel debate, it will be the first big test of the new speaker’s leadership and negotiating skills.

Senate Minority Leader McConnell has been unusually quiet about what Johnson has planned for the House and how willing he is to go along with him. The Kentuckian is no fan of Trump and seems suspicious of Johnson—whether because of something in particular or Johnson’s close alliance with his most conservative members is hard to decipher.

What’s clear, however, is the low regard he has for MAGA politics. It’s a sign of the times that Senator McConnell is considered to be among the more reasonable lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Had it not been for Kentuckian Attorney General Garland would now be Supreme Court Justice Garland. There are other hypocrisies that the senator can be tagged with; for the moment, he’s on the side of those wanting to govern.

House moderates are likely to vote with the Johnson and the far-right conservatives. They know that the House versions of the funding bills are unacceptable to both a bi-partisan majority of the Senate and the White House. Opposing legislation that never becomes law risks their standing within the Republican House conference.

The differences between the House and Senate versions of the appropriations bills will need to be reconciled within conference committee(s) made up of members from both chambers. It’s hard to imagine it being done in nine days and counting. MAGA Republicans in Congress have turned lawmaking into a three-dimensional chess game. It’s a swamp of the GOP’s making.

After three weeks of infighting, it appears that the hardline MAGA Republican House minority remains in control of the lower chamber. The question dominating Washington politics is how willing they will be to compromise with the Senate and the White House. Only time will tell. Tick Toc, tick, toc.

Image courtesy of Jose Fontano on Unsplash.

Well, Republicans in the US House of Representatives finally did it. They elected Mike Johnson (R-LA) to succeed Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker of the lower chamber. It took them just over three weeks to do the deed—during which time the work of Congress came to a virtual standstill. Johnson is now second in line to succeed President Biden should he or Vice President Harris become unable to fulfill their duties.

So, what does Johnson’s elevation to the speaker’s chair mean for US climate policy? It doesn’t bode particularly well. Although hardly worse than what McCarthy meant for clean energy and the environment. Before going into specifics, a bit of background on Johnson is in order.

Speaker, Johnson is a MAGA Republican who has the blessing of ex-President Trump. Johnson wasn’t the first pick of the Republican House conference. In fact, he wasn’t the second, third, or fourth pick of the group. Those honors were given to Representatives Steve Scalise (R-LA), Jim Jordan (R-OH), and Tom Emmer (R-MN), respectively.

Of the group of unchosen, Emmer enjoyed the shortest candidacy—lasting only four hours before it became known that the ex-president and the ultra-right wingers in the House said they wouldn’t support him. Emmer is considered a moderate. If that wasn’t bad enough, he had the audacity—nay, the affrontery—of claiming that Joe Biden was freely and fairly elected president of these here United States of America.

On the other hand, Johnson captained an effort by House Republicans to file a brief supporting Texas’ last-ditch attempt to have the results of the 2020 election tossed because of irregularities. The man from Louisiana has gone so far as to state that “the allegations about some of them [voting machines] being rigged with the software by Dominion” had a lot of merit. It was alleged by Trump and the Pillow King, Mike Lindell, that the machines could move Trump’s votes over to Biden. Repeating these lies cost Fox News nearly $800 billion, and Tucker Carlson his job.

The Associated Press has reported that the new speaker “echoed some of the wilder conspiracy theories pushed by former President Donald Trump to explain away his loss.” Notwithstanding the Supreme Court’s dismissal of suits questioning the outcome of the 2020 election, Johnson voted against “certifying Biden’s win even after the [January 6^th] attack on the Capitol.”

Speaker Johnson is an evangelical Christian and the former chair of the ultra-conservative Republican Study Committee. He’s a staunch opponent of abortion and favors a national law to that effect. As a member of the House Judiciary Committee, Johnson has said that “Roe v. Wade gave constitutional cover to the elective killing of unborn children in America.” 

In the same breadth, Johnson spoke of the problematic economic impacts of abortions.

“Think about the implications of that on the economy. We’re all struggling here to cover the bases of Social Security and Medicare and Medicaid and all the rest. If we had all those able-bodied workers in the economy, we wouldn’t be going upside down and toppling over like this.”

Johnson strongly supports Louisiana’s near-total ban on abortions and fining or jailing of doctors who perform the procedure.

Speaker Johnson has also introduced a federal version of Florida’s Don’t Say Gay law and opposes same-sex marriage. According to ABC, prior to his election to Congress, “he spent years building his career and profile by denouncing gay people and fighting against gay rights, which he staunchly opposes, citing his Christian faith and views on liberty.” In his own words, the new speaker believes “homosexual marriage is the dark harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy that could doom even the strongest republic.”

Alexis McGill Johnson, president and CEO of Planned Parenthood Action Fund, has referenced Speaker Johnson’s history of opposition to abortion rights. In advance of his election by the House, she had indicated that:

“House Republicans, including those claiming to be moderates, know exactly what they are doing by electing him as speaker: they are fully embracing extremism and a plan to ban abortion nationwide.” 

The anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List gives Johnson an ‘A+’ rating. He also has a 100 percent rating from the legislative arm of the Christian-conservative group Family Research Council has done work for Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF).

According to ADF’s website, the organization is “a leading Christian law firm committed to protecting religious freedom, free speech, marriage and family, parental rights, and the sanctity of life.” The Southern Poverty Law Center has a different opinion. It classifies ADF as a hate group.

Johnson has no recognizable record of working across the aisle or even across legislative chambers. Most senators—Republican or Democrat—seem unable to speak from experience about Johnson. His lack of notoriety is considered a strength. Whereas high profilers like Jim Jordan act as Democratic lightning rods, Johnson’s relative obscurity makes him less subject to partisan attacks.

Being a Louisianan, it’s hardly surprising that Johnson is pro-fossil fuels. His support has earned him a 100 percent rating from the American Energy Alliance—a group advocating on behalf of fossil fuels. It’s also unsurprising that the League of Conservation Voters, a leading climate advocacy organization, gives Johnson only a 2 percent lifetime rating. It places him lower than all but 24 of the 435 current House members, all of whom are Republican.

Johnson seems not to believe that human activity is the primary driver of climate change. However, he has recognized that changes are happening. Like the ex-president and much of the GOP, he lays the blame for the well-documented changes at the feet of Nature herself.

The new speaker “has consistently voted against dozens of climate bills and amendments, opposing legislation requiring companies to disclose their risks from climate change and bills that would reduce leaks of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from oil and gas wells.” Johnson also supports funding cuts for the Environmental Protection Agency.

Johnson has called the Green New Deal “A Greedy New Steal” and “a thinly veiled attempt to implement the policies that would usher in a new socialist society in America.” The president of Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, a Republican-focused organization that supports renewables, expects the new speaker to try and repeal the Inflation Reduction Act.

According to the New York Times’ Lisa Friedman, “Steven J. Milloy, a prominent climate denialist, called Mr. Johnson ‘a quantum leap improvement’ over Mr. McCarthy.” Milloy is likely basing his claim on the document “Commitment to America.”

Inspired by Newt Gingrich’s “Contract with America,” the plan was commissioned by McCarthy after the relatively poor showing of the GOP in the 2022 midterm elections—which resulted in the currently razor-thin five-vote Republican House majority. The Commitment includes references to encouraging domestic development of renewables alongside fossil fuels and planting one trillion trees to better absorb carbon in the atmosphere.”

Although hardly a climate champion, McCarthy has somewhat consistently expressed concern that the GOP is risking the loss of younger voters because of its nearly wholesale refusal to combat climate change—or even to recognize it as a political threat to their majority status. If Milloy is right, then US climate policy will be under attack in a Johnson regime.

Although Johnson’s relatively thin congressional record makes him harder to lay a Democratic glove on, the Democrats have come out swinging. Representative Jamie Raskin (D-MD) has jested that Johnson is an “insurrectionist esquire,” based on the comments the speaker made following the January 6th seditious Capitol assault.

Other Democrats have warned that Johnson’s polite manner doesn’t override his loyalty to Trump and the far-right wing of the GOP. Pete Aguilar (D-CA) argues that the speaker gives House members like Jordan, Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), and Lauren Boebert (R-CA) a “safe place” in which to operate. Indeed, many early press pictures showed Johnson surrounded by these and other MAGA representatives.

Matt Gaetz (R-GA,) the congressman who started it all with his motion to vacate the chair that brought McCarthy down, speaks more eloquently of the situation than ever I could. In a Real Voices of America podcast with Steve Bannon, Gaetz said:

“If you don’t think that moving from Kevin McCarthy to MAGA Mike Johnson shows the ascendance of this movement and where the power in the Republican Party truly lies, then you’re not paying attention.”

And that’s it for today’s Climate Politics.

Image of US House of Representatives courtesy of Wikipedia.

It’s been weeks now and 221 Republicans can’t seem to get their House in order. It seems that the gang of eight that removed Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) from the speaker’s chair didn’t have a Plan B. The U.S. House of Representatives remains out of order without an elected successor to the former speaker.

Although there’s probably no good time for a leaderless lower chamber, the dysfunction of the House today could hardly come at a worse time—what with wars and a pending government shutdown because the current continuing resolution keeping the doors open will lapse on November 17^th without congressional action. Then too there are the matters of inflation and other economic woes facing American families.

The speaker’s race is in turmoil and tempers are beginning to flare. Following the failure of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) to gather the 217 votes needed to succeed McCarthy, Jim Jordan (R-OH) defeated the moderate Austin Scott (R-GA). Jordan has now failed in his efforts to capture the needed votes.

For many in the Republican House conference Jordan is the last one they would like to see become speaker. It’s an opinion shared by the 212 Democrats. Jordan, a founder of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, has been a leading figure in the ousting of House Speakers Boehner (R-OH) and Ryan (R-WI).

Jordan’s elevation to the speakership would be a case of rewarding the House’s bad boy for the chaos he’s managed to cause since his arrival in Congress in 2007. Jordan has now twice failed to win the 217 votes needed. He lost the second time by more votes than the first. Republicans were heard to say that he was using strong-arm tactics to flip the opposition.

Texas Representative Kay Granger (R) posted on social media: "This was a vote of conscience and I stayed true to my principles. Intimidation and threats will not change my position." In return for her principled vote, Granger has now received credible death threats from Jordan supporters.

Grainger’s hardly the only House member to receive them. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has also been threatened after “pulling her support from Jordan in the second round of balloting to choose the next speaker of the House.”

Republicans in both the House and Senate believe the House fiasco will bode badly for them in 2024—especially in districts and states where Biden performed well in 2020. The lesson many voters will learn from the chaos is that Republicans can’t govern.

Among the worried is Congressman Don Bacon (R-NE), who represents Nebraska’s 2^nd Congressional district. Bacon is worried about more than winning re-election. He’s reported saying that his wife is getting ugly messages because of his opposition to Jordan. (The congressman has voted twice for McCarthy rather than Jordan.)

Bacon has offered rare insight into the problem. According to him:

"These guys want to be in the minority. I think they would prefer that because they could vote 'no' and yell and scream all the time," he told the network. But governing, you have to work together."

Jordan is forcing a third vote rather than taking his having lost the second vote by more than the first. Whether a third loss will cause him to bow out is anyone’s guess at this point. It took McCarthy 15 votes to finally win. Alternatives are being discussed both within and without the Democrats.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies (D-NY) has indicated that the Democrats would be willing to work with House moderates to come up with a candidate they can agree on. One possibility is voting the temporary House Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-NC) into the speaker’s slot. McHenry, however, has indicated he doesn’t want the position. Can you blame him?

There are other possibilities. Time works against the Republicans on this issue. There’s also a lot of risk involved for any moderate Republican to work with Democrats. Sympathies may be similar but there’s a line to be drawn—somewhere.

There’s a lot of negotiating going on in the used-to-be smoke filled rooms. The Democrats oppose Jordan for many reasons—not the least of these being he’s the lead on efforts to impeach President Biden. There are issues on the table as well and the GOP dysfunction gives them an opportunity to do a bit of horse trading.

Time works against the Democrats as well. They’ve given their colleagues across the aisle all the opportunity to make the decision in a timely manner. They’ll lose the “moral high ground” if they seem unreasonable.

Democratic Congressman Jim McGovern (MA) has described the feeling amongst House Democrats best of all: “We want people who are gonna’ do the responsible thing, not cheer on a government shutdown, not bring garbage to the floor, but actually — for whatever period of time — that person would be there to actually help us legislate in a responsible way.”

The sad part of this is that no business is being conducted on Capitol Hill. If chaos was the objective of the eight far-right Republicans who engineered McCarthy’s removal, they’ve succeeded.

On to today’s ten.

CAFE Oh No. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation took aim at the Biden administration’s plan to drastically hike fuel economy requirements, saying yesterday that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s proposed CAFE rules were “unreasonable” and would significantly drive up average vehicle costs for consumers.

Under the proposal, U.S. automakers would be required to increase the average mileage of passenger vehicles sold by 2% per year, and 4% per year for light-duty trucks and SUVs between 2027 and 2032—resulting in an average fuel economy of 58 miles per gallon.

AAI, which represents nearly all major U.S. automakers excluding Tesla, said yesterday that NHTSA’s plan "exceeds reason and will increase costs to the American consumer with absolutely no environmental or fuel savings benefits."

The American Automotive Policy Council also urged the administration to halve its proposed fuel economy increases for trucks, saying in a separate statement Monday that the proposed rule "would disproportionately impact the truck fleet,” including more than 80% of vehicles produced by the Detroit Three automakers. (Reuters)

Startups start down. Private market equity and grant funding for climate tech startups around the world totaled $65 billion for the last fiscal year, according to a new report from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. That marks a more than 40% decrease compared to the year prior.

Bloomberg lays out, the reasons for the drop in funding levels can be pointed to geopolitical turmoil, inflation, rising interest rates and lowered valuations – all factors that affect the tech investment landscape at large.

But the stakes for climate investing are higher than ever – the Earth just experienced its hottest September ever, following a record-breaking summer.

The market downturn means that climate tech startups need to be more focused on solving real world problems and understanding “the buyer persona,” Amit Chaturvedy, a global head and managing partner of SE Ventures, a $1 billion venture capital firm, told Bloomberg. (Bloomberg)

Can you hear me now? Climate activist Greta Thunberg was arrested today after she joined hundreds of other protesters in London to disrupt the Energy Intelligence Forum, a three-day conference attended by CEOs from some of the world’s largest oil and gas companies as well as politicians and investors.

The protest was organized by Fossil Free London and Greenpeace, who have dubbed the event as the “Oscars of oil” and plan to stage similar disruptions through the rest of the gathering.

Thunberg said protesters “have no other option but to put our bodies outside this conference and to physically disrupt” the gathering.

Speakers include the CEOs of major fossil fuel companies including Occidental Petroleum, Equinor, Saudi Aramco, and Shell. (euronews.green)

Between a rock and hard place. President Joe Biden is facing pressure from Republicans and some Democrats to crack down on Iranian oil exports following Iranian-allied Hamas’ attack on Israel last weekend, despite the possibility of spiking global oil prices. Earlier this week, Florida’s Rick Scott and nine other GOP senators urged Biden to impose “severe sanctions” on Iran with the help of other Group of Seven countries, while Democrats like Florida Rep. Jared Moskowitz have co-sponsored legislation that aims to deter the country’s oil exports. (Politico) 

It just keeps rising. Global emissions from energy use are expected to increase through 2050 as a growing population and higher incomes will “offset” the impacts of efficiency and lower carbon intensity, according to a new report from the Energy Information Administration. The primary source of carbon dioxide emissions through 2050 will be China, the EIA said, while India is expected to become the second-biggest emitter by that time. (The Hill) 

A step in the right direction. Solar developers, environmentalists, farming groups and tribal organizations said on Thursday that they had reached an agreement that could make it easier in the United States to build large solar farms, which have attracted stiff opposition in some places.

The agreement seeks to address some thorny land-use and biodiversity issues that often stymie power projects in which developers propose installing large arrays of solar panels. The deal is the result of months of discussions organized by the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment, the Solar Energy Industries Association and the Nature Conservancy.

Various groups have opposed large solar projects, arguing that they take up land that is sacred to tribes or is home to threatened plants or animals. Some people have also opposed solar farms for aesthetic reasons, arguing that they ruin their view or the pastoral nature of their communities.

Participants in the talks that produced the agreement said it would give project developers and potential opponents a framework — focusing on greater public participation early in the siting process — to resolve concerns without resorting to legal and political fights. That, in turn, would help accelerate the use of solar energy and fight climate change. (New York Times)

What a load of crop. Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin of New York have introduced a measure that provides farmers with funding to reduce carbon emissions and nutrient pollution – a bill that already has a Senate companion, and could be considered in the upcoming farm bill.

The House measure, dubbed the “CROP for Farming Act” and first obtained by the Washington Examiner, would amend the Food Security Act of 1985 to expand access to funds for farmers looking to voluntarily reduce their emissions. The Environmental Quality Incentives Program, which falls under the decades-old law, pays farmers to plan and implement conservation projects – and under this bill, would make three agricultural practices eligible for federal funds: reducing nitrous oxide and methane emissions, and storing carbon in soil and plants. Read the bill here. 

"As a member of the Conservative Climate Caucus and Co-Chair of the Appalachian Trail Caucus, ensuring that we preserve our environment for future generations is very important to me," Lawler said in a written statement. "This legislation will help our farmers and incentivize innovative practices that ensure a cleaner, better future for everyone. That's something we can all support, regardless of politics."

According to an analysis from activist organization Environmental Working Group, total EQIP payments to farmers between 2017 and 2020 totaled more than $3.6 billion – but only 23% of payments went toward mitigating climate change. The offices cited this study in a fact sheet to explain that an expansion of the EQIP program would aid farmers in reducing agriculture-related emissions, and help the U.S. reach its climate goals by 2050.

The bipartisan measure has nearly 30 organizations endorsing the measure, including green groups such as Earthjustice and Evergreen Action. (Washington Examiner)

Put a cap on it.  The Treasury Department announced new enforcement measures today aimed at strengthening the price cap on Russian oil, a first-of-its-kind punitive measure that comes amid reports that Moscow’s flagship Urals-grade crude is being sold at prices far higher than the $60 per barrel cap set by Western leaders.

Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said it is sanctioning two entities that have continued to transport Russian oil at prices above the capped price while using Western shipping services.

The sanctions are the first time that the G-7-led oil price cap coalition has made good on its threat to punish entities that continue to defy the oil price cap—or the first-of-its-kind effort designed to slash Russia’s oil revenue while also keeping its barrels on the market. (Washington Examiner)

A matter of money. Among consumers who said they were considering installing solar panels in the next 10 years, more than 4 in 5 said they were considering them as a way to lower their electric bills.

Despite widespread interest, many consumers without solar panels said upfront installation costs are keeping the energy systems out of their reach.

Lowering the upfront costs of solar panel installations will drive faster adoption of rooftop solar systems. As consumers become more aware of funding opportunities through agencies like the Energy Department and the Environmental Protection Agency, which are already working to fund projects that will help lower those costs, more solar adoption is likely to follow.

A lack of respect. Indigenous groups say huge project in northern Nevada threatens environmental, cultural and historical destruction

The rugged and beautiful Thacker Pass in the desert mountains of northern Nevada has long been a sacred site for Native American tribes in the region.

It has witnessed bloody and terrible history. On 12 September 1865, US federal soldiers in the 1st Nevada cavalry committed a massacre of Native Americans, the Numu, across Thacker Pass, named Peehee Mu’huh – Rotten Moon, in the Numu language. Thirty to 50 Native Americans are believed to have been killed, including women and children.

The pass is also the site of the largest known lithium deposit in the US and one of the largest in the world, and Native people and their supporters say another tragedy is now unfolding there.

A mining project on the site by Lithium Americas, fast-tracked at the end of the Trump Administration, started construction earlier this year. For its proponents, the mine is an essential component for the US’s shift to a greener future. For its critics, the mine threatens irrevocable environmental and historical destruction to the area. (The Guardian)

Dominating politics this week is the war in the Middle East between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, in which thousands have died and many more have been wounded. Israel's far-right Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised a scorched earth retaliation against Hamas and other terrorist groups like the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It appears that both Israel and Hamas are prepared for a long war.

As with all wars, it's the innocent—on both sides—who will suffer the most. The Gaza Strip "is home to at least 2.3 million people, considered one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Israeli officials declared a "complete siege" of Gaza, cutting off water, food and power supplies."

The war is roiling the energy sector. The price of petroleum is rising towards $100/barrel. Analysts say the crisis "could have disastrous consequences for the U.S. economy." The price rise will contribute to inflation and could lead to an economic slump in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world.

Republicans in Washington are using the crisis to attack President Biden for his decision to release $6 billion in oil revenues to Iran for humanitarian purposes and the return of five Iranian prisoners facing charges in the U.S. The source of the $6 billion are funds that South Korea owed Iran for oil it purchased "before the Trump administration imposed sanctions on such transactions in 2019."

Spokesmen for the administration have stated that none of the funds have been spent. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby has said that "the funds that were moved to Qatar would have 'more legal restrictions' than in South Korea and that the U.S. would have oversight about where the money is being spent." 

Ousted Speaker McCarthy set the tone of Republican attacks on President Biden that should be expected to continue over the coming days and weeks. The former speaker said: "Rather than focus on his Green New Deal, he [Biden] should be focused on protecting Americans."

Both Democrats and Republicans have urged Biden to do more to prevent the sale of Iranian oil, especially to China. A bipartisan group of senators has introduced the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act. The bill, whose sponsors include Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Maggie Hassan (D-NH), would sanction anyone assisting Iran to export its oil. A companion bill sponsored by Representatives Mike Lawler (R-NY) and Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) has been introduced in the House.

The ousting of McCarthy as speaker is hampering efforts by Congress to respond to the crisis in the Middle East. No business can be conducted until a new speaker is elected, although committees can still meet. The two candidates who appear to be leading contenders for the job are the current majority leader, Representative Steve Scalise (R-LA), and Jim Jordan (R-H), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.

Jordan founded the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus (HFC) and was part of the group that booted McCarthy from the speaker's chair. He's been endorsed by the leader of the pack of eight, Matt Gaetz (R-FL). Scalise is among the most conservative members of the Republican House conference.

At this point, whether Jordan or Scalise can secure the needed 217 votes to gain the speakership is unclear. It's not anticipated that a new speaker will be chosen before the end of this week. Much will depend upon what the 210 Republican representatives who voted to keep McCarthy as speaker will do. Although unable to elect a speaker, they can certainly stand in the way of anointing a member of the HFC.

It's critical to remember that Congress is facing a deadline of November 17th to pass F.Y. 2024 appropriations or face the shutdown of the federal government. The government is currently operating under a continuing resolution. McCarthy's support for the resolution led to his ouster. A harder-line conservative speaker, e.g., Jordan or Scalise, is unlikely to care whether the government stays open.

The objective of those on the far right is all about chaos rather than compromise. It's a goal shared by the former president. As if things couldn't get weirder than they already are, Trump has been talked about as a candidate for the speakership. There's no requirement that the leader of the House must be a member of it. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) supports the idea and has been quoted as saying: "If Trump becomes Speaker of the House, the House chamber will be like a Trump rally every day!!"

Fortunately, it will never be. Not only has Trump indicated that he has a campaign to win, but the rules of the House are that no indicted individual can be speaker. McCarthy has recently indicated that he would be willing to re-take the speakership if other candidates cannot garner the needed votes. It's a reversal of the position he took following his ouster. Should that occur, it's reasonable to assume that he would continue to be under the thumb of the gang of eight that engineered his exit.

The failure of House Republicans to elect a new speaker could lead to a bipartisan solution to the problem. A deal between the Democrats and moderate Republicans could be struck in several ways. A moderate candidate like Tom Emmer (R-MN) could be nominated and elected. Although a much less likely possibility, the Minority Leader of the House, Hakeem Jefferies (D-NY), could also be elected with the help of a half dozen or so Republicans. Stranger things have happened.

On with today's ten.

Gas lighting? Florida Power & Light will begin operations at its Cavendish NextGen Hydrogen Hub, one of the country’s first green hydrogen facilities. The 25-megawatt project will use solar power to split water into oxygen and hydrogen atoms, and then blend that hydrogen into fossil gas used to power a turbine generating electricity.

It’s one of the first attempts by a U.S. utility to curb emissions using green hydrogen, a fuel that is in short supply today but which experts expect will play an important role in decarbonizing heavy industries.

But according to energy experts, converting clean energy into hydrogen just to use that hydrogen to generate more electricity later is, in most cases, a bad idea. The main concern is that the process will end up wasting enormous amounts of clean power — and green hydrogen far more valuable for use in other ways — in pursuit of a zero-carbon chimera. (Canary Media)

Some hourly rate. The damage caused by the climate crisis through extreme weather has cost $16m (£13m) an hour for the past 20 years, according to a new estimate.

Storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts have taken many lives and destroyed swathes of property in recent decades, with global heating making the events more frequent and intense. The study is the first to calculate a global figure for the increased costs directly attributable to human-caused global heating.

It found average costs of $140bn (£115bn) a year from 2000 to 2019, although the figure varies significantly from year to year. The latest data shows $280bn in costs in 2022. The researchers said lack of data, particularly in low-income countries, meant the figures were likely to be seriously underestimated. Additional climate costs, such as from crop yield declines and sea level rise, were also not included.

The researchers produced the estimates by combining data on how much global heating worsened extreme weather events with economic data on losses. The study also found that the number of people affected by extreme weather because of the climate crisis was 1.2 billion over two decades. (The Guardian)

Union made. General Motors has agreed to place battery manufacturing for electric vehicles under its main agreement with the United Auto Workers union, UAW President Shawn Fain announced.

The UAW was initially prepared to call on members to walk out at one of GM’s “biggest and most important plants” in Arlington, Texas, Fain said. However, after the “transformative win,” he opted not to call for additional strikes.

“What this will mean for our membership cannot be understated,” Fain said. “The plan was to draw down engine and transmission plants and permanently replace them with low-wage battery jobs.” (The Hill)

No longer a Democrat. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination and will instead run as an independent. The environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist is poised to visit Texas, Florida and Georgia later this month as his campaign says it is confident it will gain ballot access in every state, adding a complication to what is looking like a close general election contest between Biden and Trump. (CNN)

Cool. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Friday announced two new measures aimed at reducing climate-warming chemicals used in refrigerators and air conditioners that can help the U.S. meet its goals to halve its greenhouse gas emissions this decade. (Reuters)

Greening the EU. The European Council on Monday adopted a new renewables energy directive that would raise the share of green energy used by the EU to 42.5% by 2030 – up from a previous goal of 32%. A “top-up” of another 2.5% that will aim for 45% is offered through the directive, which will be reached through voluntary contributions of member states.

After months of wrangling, the group was able to adopt amendments to the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive that establishes targets within the transportation, industrial, heating and cooling, and bioenergy sectors, and will establish a faster permitting process.

“This is a great achievement in the framework of the ´Fit for 55´package which will help to achieve the EU’s climate goal of reducing EU emissions by at least 55% by 2030,” Teresa Ribera, the Spanish acting Minister for the Ecological Transition, said in a statement. “It is a step forward which will contribute to reaching the EU’s climate targets in a fair, cost-effective and competitive way.”

Some of these targets include an “indicative target” of at least 49% renewable share in buildings in 2030, a requirement that 42% of hydrogen used in the industry be clean by 2030 and 60% by 2035, and a target of 5.5% advanced biofuels and renewable energies be supplied to the transportation sector. (Washington Examiner)

Nuke x 2.The International Atomic Energy Agency said today global nuclear power output needs to double in the next 30 years in order to mitigate “catastrophic” warming levels, stressing the need for more investments from the public sector.

“The main challenge is financing,” IEA chief Fatih Birol said at the IAEA’s quadrennial conference in Vienna.

Since private investors are not factoring in things like the long lifetime of nuclear reactors. governments “need to be in the driving seat,” leaders said.

IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi also stressed this point, noting that nuclear reactors can run for more than a half century. “We need to think long term,” he said. “Governments and investors need comprehensive science-based data. But they are working with a data hole.”

The conference comes as the IAEA estimates that nuclear capacity is on track to increase between 458 GW and 890 GW by 2050—up from 371 GW in 2022.

Total nuclear energy output has fallen globally over the last 20 years to make up just 9% of all energy supplies, according to agency data. (Washington Examiner)

Where we agree.  "Gallup released new polling last week showing that 63% of U.S. adults currently agree with the statement that the Republican and Democratic parties do “such a poor job” of representing the American people that “a third major party is needed.” It was among the highest figures since Gallup first asked the question in 2003."

"But an outsider candidate does not need to qualify for the ballot in every state to have a profound political impact. Just ask Brendan McPhillips, the state director for Biden’s Pennsylvania efforts in the last election.

Like many Democrats, he still blames Stein for helping Trump win the battleground state in 2016. While it’s impossible to say for sure, Trump carried Pennsylvania that year by just 44,000 votes, while Stein, an outspoken progressive, won nearly 50,000 votes in the state."

"In an interview, former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the No Labels founding chairman, said the organization will begin a candidate recruitment and selection process in the next two to three weeks. The group would decide to move forward with a centrist candidate, he said, only if Biden and Trump appear likely to win their party’s presidential nominations after the batch of primary contests known as Super Tuesday next March. (Associated Press)

Biden’s to blame. Soon after Iran-backed militants launched land and air attacks against Israel, Republicans began their own assault on the Biden administration’s energy and climate policies.

At first, the criticism focused on $6 billion in Iranian oil revenues the administration freed up for humanitarian purposes. Lawmakers have also accused President Joe Biden of not doing enough to enforce Iran oil export sanctions.

Then, on Monday, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) launched a barrage of attacks on the president’s environment and climate agenda.

McCarthy called the administration’s decision not to impose tougher sanctions in 2021 against the now-defunct Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany — at the request of the German government — “a Neville Chamberlain moment.”

The former speaker, addressing reporters at the Capitol, also went after Biden’s decision last year to release 180 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce gasoline prices and for calling climate change an existential threat.

“That is when evil feels they can move. That’s exactly what they did,” McCarthy said of Palestinian militants. He accused Biden of leaving the U.S. and its allies vulnerable.

McCarthy — echoing well-worn GOP comments that will likely reemerge this week — said of the president, “Rather than focus on his Green New Deal, he should be focused on protecting Americans.” (E&E News)

Image: Courtesy of Unsplash

Speaker McCarthy (R-CA) decided the best way to deal with the far-right members of the Republican House conference who are adamant about their not caring if the government has to shutdown on Sunday at 12:01 a.m. is to yield to them. A strategy that’s unlikely to work—as much because of moderate Republicans as Senate and House Democrats.

The Senate, by a vote of 77-19 passed a short-term funding bill that would avert a shutdown on October 1^st. The measure would fund the federal government until November 17th, while providing around $6.15 billion in funding for Ukraine and $5.99 billion in disaster assistance. Senate Majority Leader (D-NY) Schumer and Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY) are more or less on the same page.

McCarthy is refusing to bring the Senate’s continuing resolution to the House floor for a vote. He’s also indicated he doesn’t want to negotiate with Senate Majority Leader Schumer and has asked to negotiate directly with President Biden. For the moment, at least, the president isn’t going to humor the speaker—as it’s clear that McCarthy can neither speak for nor control his own members. So, any agreement he may make he’s unlikely to keep.

Speaker McCarthy has already shown that to be the case. He and Biden pinky-swore a deal on FY 24 budget levels as part of the debt ceiling negotiation and McCarthy chucked the agreement under pressure from hard-liners like Matt Gaetz (R-FL)—who keeps threatening to boot McCarthy from the speaker’s chair if he doesn’t yield to the demands of the House Freedom Caucus.

According to the Washington Post “Roughly 10 Republicans have dug in on their opposition to any short-term funding deal, blocking the House majority from delivering a bill chock full of their legislative priorities to the Democratic-led Senate in hopes of negotiating a more conservative solution to avoid a government shutdown.” Among the 10 are Representatives Gaetz (R-FL), Boebert (R-CO), Biggs (R-AZ) and Good (R-VA).

Representative Mike Lawler (R-NY) pretty well sums things up on the House side: “The American people elected a House Republican majority to serve as a check and balance and be able to govern. Some of my colleagues have, frankly, been stuck on stupid and refused to do what we were elected to do, against the vast majority of the conference, who have been working to avoid a shutdown.”

Stuck on stupid—couldn’t have said better myself. So, on to today’s ten.

Speaking of stupid. Donald Trump’s on the warpath against his mortal enemy again, and it made a big splash on social media. The former president raved during a campaign speech in South Carolina that “windmills” are driving whales “crazy.”

“Windmills are causing whales to die in numbers never seen before. Nobody does anything about that,” he claimed. (MSN)

Speaking of Lawler. Representative Lawler (R-NY) and other vulnerable Republicans have explored working with Democrats to keep the government open. A bipartisan group introduced a bill Wednesday to stave off a shutdown, though it faces steep hurdles to receive a vote on the floor without Mr. McCarthy’s support.

“I am ready to explore each and every option possible to make sure that we don’t shut this government down,” Representative Anthony D’Esposito, Republican of New York, said on C-SPAN’s “Washington Journal” on Wednesday. “Every option is on the table.” (New York Times)

Ford says maybe not. Ford has hit pause on building an electric vehicle battery plant in Michigan, adding fuel to the larger political and economic battle over President Joe Biden’s climate goals.

The $3.5 billion facility would be the first to manufacture next-gen lithium, iron and phosphate batteries on U.S. soil — a major boon for Biden’s twin goals of slashing planet-warming pollution and boosting domestic manufacturing. It would also employ some 2,500 unionized workers — a key feature for a labor-friendly president.

Ford’s decision to halt work on the plant comes as the United Auto Workers approaches week three of its strike against the company, along with General Motors and Stellantis. Auto workers are demanding higher wages to make up for years of employee concessions to management, amid a shift to EVs that threatens a long-term erosion of UAW jobs. (POLITICO)

Why did she do it? The House Oversight and Accountability Committee announced a probe Tuesday morning into a recent interstate trip by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm intended to promote electric vehicle (EV) adoption, during which departmental staff vehicles allegedly blocked off a charging station for her.

A letter to the Secretary specifically mentions an incident during the trip in which a staffer reportedly blocked off an EV charger in Georgia to reserve it for Granholm’s use. A family seeking to use the charger called the police during the episode, although blocking off a charger is not illegal under Georgia law. (The Hill)

Another shell game? Shell CEO Wael Sawan has come under pressure over his strategy from within the energy company after two employees issued a rare open letter urging him not to scale back investments in renewable energy, sparking an internal debate.

The open letter, posted earlier this month on Shell's internal web and seen by Reuters this week, comes after Sawan outlined at an investor day in June plans to slow investment in renewables and low-carbon business as part of a strategy to boost returns. (WION)

Striking out. President Joe Biden joined striking UAW workers on the picket lines in Detroit yesterday, where he echoed their calls for a 40 percent pay raise and urged them to “stick with it.”

“Companies were in trouble, now they're doing incredibly well,” Biden told union workers during the strike, referencing the 2009 government bailout of U.S. automakers. “And guess what? You should be doing incredibly well, too,” he told them. “Stick with it."

Asked if he supported the UAW’s demands for a 40 percent wage increase—commensurate with CEO pay raises over the past four years—Biden responded, "Yes. I think they should be able to bargain for that."

It is unclear what impact Biden’s remarks will have on the negotiations, or if they threaten to prolong the strikes further. (Washington Examiner)

Avoiding another disaster. Senate appropriators introduced last night legislative text of a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through Nov. 17, in hopes of staving off a government shutdown. And there’s money to keep the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s coffers from drying up – but not as much as the White House initially hoped for.

The proposed bill allocates about $6 billion in disaster aid for the agency – $10 billion short of what the White House had asked for back in August and September. FEMA is facing a shortfall of funds in a record-breaking year for natural disasters – and as a result, the agency has started to ration its monies, delaying the delivery of about $2.8 billion in grants, as reported by the Washington Post this morning. (Washington Examiner)

Roiling oil and markets. Russia announced last week it is temporarily banning nearly all exports of its diesel and gasoline products, further squeezing global markets.

Russia did not announce an end date to the export bans. A protracted ban on diesel exports could leave markets deeply undersupplied.

Russia is the largest seaborne exporter of diesel, just ahead of the U.S., and the ban could force buyers to find alternative sellers for the foreseeable future. (Washington Examiner)

Foxes in the chicken coup. Senior executives from the UAE’s national oil company are working with the Cop28 team as the country ramps up its PR campaign ahead of the major UN climate summit later this year, leaked internal records show.

Two PR professionals from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) are identified as providing “additional support” to the team running the summit, according to a Cop28 communications strategy document obtained by the Centre for Climate Reporting (CCR) and the Guardian. It adds to growing evidence of blurred lines between the UAE’s Cop28 team and its fossil fuel industry.

In January, Adnoc’s chief executive, Sultan Al Jaber, who also serves as the UAE’s climate change special envoy, was announced as Cop28 president, which is being hosted in Dubai in November and December. Since then, multiple reports have raised concerns about ties between his two teams. The Cop28 team previously stated that there were “clear governance guidelines in place to ensure the team can operate entirely independently from any other entity” (The Guardian)

As if they didn’t have something else to do. Republicans will hold their first impeachment hearing against Joe Biden on Thursday, the latest step in a months-long effort investigating the president and his son Hunter’s business dealings that has yet to turn up substantial evidence of wrongdoing.

Republicans are plowing ahead anyway, in what seems to be a thinly veiled effort to try to muddy the waters as Donald Trump, who leads the Republican primary field, faces four different criminal cases. Thursday’s hearing, led by the House oversight committee, is titled The Basis for an Impeachment Inquiry. (The Guardian)

Photo by Photo Lily on Unsplash

It’s Tuesday the 26^th of September and in five days the US government will hang a sign on the door saying “closed for business.” The Republican House conference has been so bollixed up that they all went home after meeting only three days last week.

Standing in the way of even a short-term motion to give themselves more time to work are a handful of ultra-house conservatives who simply refuse to support House Speaker Mcarthy (R-CA) until they get their way. What is their way? It’s not entirely clear. They want budget massive budget cuts in discretionary spending. Meeting their demands would mean going back on the deal that McCarthy and President Biden struck in their negotiations on raising the debt ceiling that also included FY 2024 spending levels.

Representative Jim Clyburn (D-SC) called the situation in the House a case of the “tail wagging the dog.” Senate Democrats may end up saving the day. Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY) has initiated a procedure by which the Senate will vote on a continuing resolution that would keep the government in business for another 30 days. It’s a lean resolution. It just keeps things moving at the current rate. However, it doesn’t include disaster relief funds or the $24 billion for Ukraine that Biden and a large number of Senators—Republican and Democrat--support.

The Democrats have stayed out of things for the most part—letting the dysfunction of Capitol Hill Republicans shine through. Voters will remember come election time. Appropriations legislation traditionally begins in the House. The move by Schumer means there’s little faith in Speaker McCarthy’s chances of acting in the nick of time to avoid the shutdown.

On to Today’s ten.

More than 800 U.S. buildings certified as "sustainable" are at extreme risk of flooding — and may have to be abandoned as the planet continues to overheat.

That's because the U.S. Green Building Council — an influential nonprofit that works to make buildings more climate-friendly — has for years largely overlooked the impact of extreme weather. Its point-based Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design certification generally offers new building projects just four points out of a possible 110 for taking steps to protect projects from flooding.

LEED certification is a big deal: It's subsidized or required by more than 350 local and state governments as well as the General Services Administration, which manages the vast federal building stock.

But the LEED system has a significant shortcoming

The Green Building Council has affixed its coveted three-leaved seal to 830 new buildings in the past decade that have as much as a 50 percent chance of flooding every year, according to an analysis by POLITICO's E&E News and the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that models likely climate impacts. (POLITICO)

An oily statistic. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has signed off on more oil and gas leases on federal land during President Joe Biden's first two years and seven months in office than under former President Donald Trump.

U.S. oil production is expected to hit an all-time high of almost 13 million barrels a day by the end of the year. But gasoline prices in the United States remain high, the result of production cuts in the global oil market.

The U.S. Bureau of Land Management has signed off on more oil and gas leases on federal land during President Joe Biden's first two years and seven months in office than under former President Donald Trump.

U.S. oil production is expected to hit an all-time high of almost 13 million barrels a day by the end of the year. But gasoline prices in the United States remain high, the result of production cuts in the global oil market. (POLITICO)

Hand in the cookie jar. Menendez is widely facing calls to resign (Politico). With the allegations swirling, Menendez has suddenly become a wildcard in the 2024 battle for control of the Senate as New Jersey could become a battleground state unless he resigns before the November election. (The Hill)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden on Monday told leaders from the 18-member Pacific Islands Forum that he has heard their warnings about the impact of climate change on their region and that his administration is committed to helping them meet the challenge.

Pacific islands leaders gathered Monday for the start of a two-day Washington summit. Many have been critical of rich countries for not doing enough to control climate change despite being responsible for much of the problem, and for profiting from loans provided to vulnerable nations to mitigate the effects.

At the summit’s start, Biden said his administration is requesting Congress approve $200 million in new assistance for the region, including financing to help the islands prepare for climate and natural hazards and improve infrastructure. Biden has put a premium on improving ties in the Pacific at a time of rising U.S. concern about China’s growing military and economic influence. (Associated Press)

With a song in his heart. Oli Frost stands in a cemetery wearing a long, dark coat. With a Transylvanian accent and the backing of a synth-pop beat, he sings, ​“Of course climate change is a conspiracy, made up by socialist vampires to push policies. A greener, fairer world, that’s our evil plot. Free-range organic humans have the most delicious blood.”

Oli Frost is a climate-change-focused novelty songwriter, and his song ​“The Vampire Conspiracy” garnered millions of views across platforms like TikTok, Spotify and Instagram last year. It’s a real ear worm. Not long after it blew up, Pique Action and Harvard Chan C-Change named him a Climate Creator to Watch in 2023. (Canary Media)

Ford has paused work and will limit spending on the construction of a $3.5 billion electric vehicle battery plant in Michigan until the company is “confident about our ability to competitively operate the plant.” The announcement comes as the automaker remains locked in contract negotiations with the United Auto Workers, while UAW President Shawn Fain added that the announcement was "a shameful, barely-veiled threat by Ford to cut jobs.” (Reuters) 

 A long way to go. In order to achieve net zero by 2050, the world will have to triple its renewable energy capacity by 2030 and increase green investments to $4.5 trillion a year, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. The IEA recommended increasing renewable energy capacity to 11,000 gigawatts by the end of the decade, while global investments in clean energy should rise from $1.8 trillion in 2023 to around $4.5 trillion annually by the start of the next decade. (Bloomberg) 

Made in the USA. For more than two decades, workers at a factory in Perrysburg, Ohio, near Toledo, have been making something that other businesses stopped producing in the United States long ago: solar panels.

How the company that owns the factory, First Solar, managed to hang on when most solar panel manufacturing left the United States for China is critical to understanding the viability of President Biden’s efforts to establish a large domestic green energy industry.

Some analysts warn that efforts to make solar panels in the United States are misguided. Even in the best of times, the business yields modest profits and does not employ a lot of people. It would be better to import panels from low-cost producers to quickly shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy, said Jenny Chase, a solar analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

“Solar panels would have been cheaper,” Ms. Chase said, if policymakers did not insist on domestic manufacturing. “In the United States, even with the manufacturing boom, it will still be expensive.” (New York Times)

Lego my Lego. Lego has stopped a project to make bricks from recycled drinks bottles instead of oil-based plastic, saying it would have led to higher carbon emissions over the product’s lifetime.

The move, first reported by the Financial Times, followed efforts by the world’s largest toymaker to research more sustainable materials, as part of a wave of companies reassessing their contribution to global emissions as the climate crisis hits.

The Danish company makes billions of Lego pieces a year, and in 2021 began researching a potential transition to recycled polyethylene terephthalate (PET) from acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), which needs about 2kg of petroleum to make 1kg of plastic. ABS is used in about 80% of Lego blocks.

“It’s like trying to make a bike out of wood rather than steel,” said Tim Brooks, Lego’s head of sustainability, referring to how the non-oil-based material was softer and demanded extra ingredients for durability, as well as greater energy for processing and drying.

The “level of disruption to the manufacturing environment was such that we needed to change everything in our factories” to scale up recycled PET use, he said. “After all that, the carbon footprint would have been higher. It was disappointing.” (The Guardian)

The drama in Washington is all about the looming end of the federal fiscal year. All eyes are focused on House Speaker McCarthy and whether he can deliver enough votes to keep the government open come October 1^st. The short-term target of Congress and the White House is the passage of a continuing resolution to give them more time to come up with a longer-term solution—which is likely to be another continuing resolution. Congress has not been good at passing the 12 separate appropriations bills for the past quarter century.

McCarthy has a tough row ahead of him. The far-right members of the Republican conference are digging their heels in wanting to add to any short-term resolution several of their legislative priorities, including immigration policy, no further aid for Ukraine, and reduced budgets for defense.

Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has threatened McCarthy with a motion to vacate the chair. Passage of the motion would remove the speaker. Gaetz was one of the last to vote for McCarthy and like others in the House Freedom Caucus believe he made promises he’s now not keeping. To his credit, the speaker told him to bring it on.

The track record of the House Freedom Caucus is pretty impressive when it comes to bucking moderate leadership. These populists quite literally chased former speakers Boehner (R-OH) and Ryan (R-WI) out of Congress. They too had trouble with far-righters and became frustrated by the inability to get much done. Why McCarthy might think he can do what his predecessors couldn’t is something of a mystery.

The UN meetings on climate and sustainable development goals has brought out hundreds of thousands of demonstrators worldwide. Many have Biden in their sights over his continuing to open federal lands and oceans to oil and gas and companies—among other things.

The message of climate activists is focused on stopping the use of fossil fuels—NOW. They’re right to say that successfully combating climate change means no more fossil fuels. The longer we wait the harsher will be the options for responding to a warming climate. The problem, of course, is getting policies passed that are significantly farther reaching than even the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

The hyperpartisanship that now dominates American politics means passing the needed policies just isn’t going to happen. Republican ideology is that climate change isn’t that much of a problem and is part of progressive socialist agenda. It is important, too, to understand that implementing new policies will a take a fair amount of time. New regulations would need to be written and finalized. Agencies would have to staff up and develop program guidelines.

The Biden administration’s experiences with the IRA are an example of the difficulty of implementation. Trump caused many senior and experienced government executives to leave their agencies. Even now agencies are understaffed. Could the administration’s efforts be improved? They could, but the fact remains that implementation of any new policies will take years not months.

On to today’s ten.

At a stop sign. The president has highlighted his pro-union credentials, but inflation has eroded blue-collar livelihoods and chilled support for the president on the picket lines. (New York Times)

Shirkers all. António Guterres has spoken sharply of “planet wreckers” ahead of this week’s United Nations climate summit, but politics makes it tricky to get specific. (New York Times)

Roll faster. More than 60 Democrats are calling on the Biden administration to move swiftly in its rollout of consumer rebates for energy-efficient home upgrades, warning that the current pace could lead to the “potential loss of two years of rebates.”

Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) slammed President Biden’s energy policies, placing blame on his administration for relying too much on the country’s “enemies.” (The Hill)

Hardly what’s needed. McCarthy also bragged about his House energy package, passed in March, which included measures to boost fossil fuel production, reduce regulation and increase mining. The measure, however, has yet to receive a vote in the Senate. (The Hill)

Cash short. The Biden administration has allocated billions of federal dollars towards new offshore wind projects, but both project developers and governors are arguing it’s not nearly enough cash for the massive build-outs—threatening near-term projects unless it helps foot the bill for higher costs and eases requirements for IRA tax credits.

The wind don’t blow. The projects—key to President Joe Biden’s goal of reaching 30,000 GW offshore wind capacity by 2030— are struggling to come online as developers hit unforeseen snags, including supply chain delays, soaring materials costs and high interest rates.

Equinor, Orsted, BP, Shell and other major developers have either canceled or amended planned offshore projects because of these problems. And more projects could be at risk. (Washington Examiner)

What a gas. The House Rules Committee is scheduled Monday to consider a bill that would repeal restrictions on the export and import of natural gas. The White House released a statement voicing its opposition to the bill – but stopped short of saying it would veto the measure.

The bill, introduced by Republican Rep. Bill Johnson of Ohio, would rescind certain restrictions under the Natural Gas Act, including restrictions related to free trade agreements. The legislation would also grant the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission the exclusive authority of overseeing facilities’ operations to export or import natural gas.

The White House came out in opposition to the bill Monday, arguing that the measure would eliminate consideration of whether certain exports of natural gas are consistent with public interest. (Washington Examiner)

Down a lazy river. Increases in federal flood insurance premiums that are projected to surpass 700% over the coming years are already leading people to back out of home purchases and will likely lead to an exodus of residents and businesses from southern Louisiana, officials told a federal judge Thursday in New Orleans. (Associated Press)

Tribal power. The Environmental Protection Agency gave states and tribes more authority to block energy projects that could pollute nearby rivers and streams as part of a final rule set to take effect in November. The rule – which comes after an earlier Supreme Court decision, Sackett v. EPA, weakened wetland protections – reverses a Trump-era regulation that limited the ability for states and tribes to review federally regulated projects, such as pipelines and dams, within their borders. (The Associated Press)  

Internal combustion. The House, in a 222-190 vote, passed a measure that would prohibit states from phasing out the sale of gas-powered cars, while also rescinding federal approvals for states to implement the phaseouts. The measure – which takes aim at California’s phaseout plan, despite not explicitly mentioning the state – is not expected to advance in the Democratic-led Senate. (The Hill)

Both the House and Senate managed to return from the August recess. They have less than three weeks to come to some agreement on funding the new federal fiscal year that begins on October 1^st.

Can they do it? They can. Will they do it? That’s a tough one to answer at this stage. Ultimately, they’ll have to if they want to get paid—but between now and some final action a lot is going to happen—and not necessarily for the better.

Senate appropriations committees have basically finished their work on the 12 appropriations bills that make-up the federal budget—although the bills have not been brought to the floor for a vote. The Senate’s legislation has bi-partisan support.

Hard-core, far-right House Republicans have vowed to vote against any final appropriation legislation or continuing resolution that doesn’t include provisions for a President Biden impeachment inquiry, major cuts in spending (below those agreed to earlier by the House and Senate as part of the debt-ceiling legislation, and other MAGA priorities.

As an example of how far Republican populists are willing to go to get their way, look to what Senator Tuberville (R-AL) is doing to the military. He has a hold on over 300 promotions—including the head of each service—demanding that the military stop paying for abortions. The senator seems unmoved by arguments that what he’s doing is jeopardizing US security.

In addition to the FY 2024 federal budget being on the line, is McCarthy’s future as the Speaker of the House. It took McCarthy 15 votes to finally secure the speakership. In the process he agreed to a provision that would allow a single House member to call for a vote of confidence. Should he lose the vote, he’d lose the speaker’s gavel. Threats from the far-right have become a routine part of their patter.

As Senate Minority Leader McCarthy told the folks back home in Kentucky—the situation is a “pretty big mess. Couldn’t have said it better myself.

On to today’s ten.

SNAFU, gesundheit. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), meanwhile, told an audience in his home state that “honestly, it’s a pretty big mess.” (The Hill)

Driving us crazy. A powerful federal appeals court will hear arguments this week in three challenges to the Biden administration’s efforts to curb the largest source of planet-warming pollution in the United States — and the battles have the potential to go all the way to the nation’s highest bench.

The cases before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit target both historic and contemporary efforts to clean up car and truck exhaust. They will test a 1960s-era waiver that allows California to impose stricter pollution controls than the federal government, and they’ll wield a new legal tool — used by the Supreme Court last year to constrain EPA control of power plant emissions — against a Biden administration initiative to reduce vehicle emissions.

One major player in the litigation is unlikely to participate in Thursday’s arguments. Paxton, the Republican stalwart who led the coalition of states suing over the EPA car rule, is in the middle of an unrelated impeachment trial in the Texas Legislature. (E&E News) (See here for analysis of Paxton impeachment trial.)

A taxing situation. The U.S. Treasury said it will provide guidance on additional clean energy tax incentives before the end of 2023, including a provision aimed at deterring companies from relying on Chinese supply chains.

along with guidance for the "45X" manufacturing production tax for clean energy products such as solar, wind, batteries and critical minerals components. (Reuters)

The auto industry is watching the rules for both credits as they make investment decisions on producing batteries for their transition to electric vehicles. The foreign entity of concern rules come into effect in 2024 for completed batteries and 2025 for critical minerals used to produce them.

A key decision in the guidance is whether Ford Motor Co's (F.N) deal to license the technology of Chinese battery manufacturer CATL (300750.SZ) for use in Ford-owned U.S. battery plants will meet the Treasury's standards to access the tax credits. The arrangement has raised concerns among U.S. lawmakers.

In the pursuit of sustainability. Leaders from the Group of 20 said they will “pursue and encourage efforts” to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, but could not agree on specific fossil fuel reduction commitments during a two-day summit in New Delhi. The latest G20 declaration reiterated the group’s commitment to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by or around 2050, while recognizing the importance of accelerating efforts to phase down unabated coal power to help transition to low-emission energy systems. (Reuters) 

Faster, faster. Carbon capture developers, lawmakers, and others frustrated with the slow pace of permitting for storage projects want the U.S. EPA to hand off authority to states.

In little more than a year, the list of permit applications from would-be project developers seeking to inject carbon dioxide into rock formations for permanent storage has ballooned from 14 to 119, driven by generous new federal tax incentives, the fear of future regulation and corporate climate commitments.

EPA itself has said the widespread use of carbon capture will be needed to meet the nation’s climate goals.

But the agency has only approved two permits that have led to projects — both at Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.’s Decatur, Ill., ethanol plant. Two draft permits have been issued for sites in Vigo County, Ind., but aren’t yet final.

The slow pace of permitting has frustrated project developers, lawmakers and carbon capture proponents. The way to clear the backlog, they argue, is for EPA to hand off its Safe Drinking Water Act permitting authority to a growing list of states that are willing to administer the permits themselves. Many have enacted state laws that they say would offer federal-like environmental protections as the carbon sequestration industry matures. (E&E News)

Yet, another taxing situation. Momentum is growing on Capitol Hill for a policy that would require the tallying of carbon emissions associated with industrial materials produced in the U.S. — the first step in building support for tariffs on carbon-intensive imports.

A bipartisan Senate proposal is gaining traction as two lawmakers prepare to introduce companion legislation in the House.

History is being made with impeachment trial of the Texas’ attorney general. Paxton should be familiar to almost every climate activist for his challenges to the climate and clean energy policies and programs of both the Obama and Biden administrations. (E&E News)

The sun shines on solar. The U.S. solar industry is expected to add a record 32 gigawatts of production capacity this year, up by 53% from last year, according to a new report released by the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie.

The report estimated that solar capacity would grow from 153 GW to 375 GW by 2028, as supply chain issues that arose due to the coronavirus pandemic ease up. Investment incentives from the Inflation reduction Act also contributed to the growth of the industry.

Increased investment in domestic manufacturing could see the country’s solar module production skyrocket by 2026 – if all new factory plans materialize, Wood Mackenzie said. (Washington Examiner)

What a glue-me Gus. The U.S. Open semifinal match on Thursday night between Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova was delayed by 49 minutes early in the second set by four environmental protesters in the upper levels of Arthur Ashe Stadium who were calling for an end to fossil fuels. One protester glued his bare feet to the ground.

The protest confused fans, television commentators and the players themselves, who were trying to understand what the group was protesting and why the match had been delayed so long. When play stopped, Gauff, the eventual winner, was leading, 6-4, 1-0. Both players left the court. Gauff went on to win the Open.  (New York Times)

Can’t get around it, under it, or over it. The border wall championed by President Donald Trump harmed the environment and trampled on Native American cultural sites, according to a report released on Thursday by the Government Accountability Office.

The 450 miles of barrier constructed during Trump’s time in office — one of his highest-profile actions — proceeded by waiving or disregarding environmental and historic preservation laws. But it’s now clear the wall interfered with endangered species, diverted water sources and caused other environmental damage, the federal watchdog said. (POLITICO)

The rich get richer. The top 50 independent, U.S. oil and gas producers spent $58.8 billion on dividends and share buybacks last year, surpassing the $55.1 billion allocated for exploration and development for the first time, according to research from Ernst & Young. Last year, profits for the group, which include ConocoPhillips, Pioneer Natural Resources and Diamondback Energy, exceeded $333 billion. (Reuters)

#climatechange #environment #Congress #federalbudget #policy #politics #legal #bidenadministration #cleanenergy #House #SpeakerMcCarthy #Housefreedomcaucus

Congress is out until September and the absence of the hot air off of Capitol Hill—in the hottest month ever recorded—is appreciated by all.  

The Senate is expected back on the 5^th, while the House won’t return until the 12^th, leaving precious few days to pass something—either appropriations bills or a continuing resolution—to keep the government open. The signs are not good. Much will depend upon what members hear from their constituents.

For the moment the culture wars look to continue, as reflected by Senator Tuberville’s (R-AL) continuing to hold up the promotions of over 200 military personnel and the Defense Department stops paying for until the pay for abortions. Turns out, too, that the senator doesn’t really live in Alabama—he’s now being referred to by some in the media as “Florida’s third senator.”

Tuberville is not alone in stonewalling congressional colleagues over needed appropriations wanting to get on with the business of governing. Representative Mace (R-SC) and other Republican moderates and establishment conservatives are getting worried about what voters in swing districts think of the hold ups in Washington and their impact in November 2024.

Questions concerning the Biden administration’s climate and energy policies are bubbling up with greater regularity. Not all the complaints are coming from the fossil fuel industry. Environmentalists are beginning to express their frustration and feelings of betrayal as the president continues to auction off federal leases for fossil fuel exploration and extraction.

Biden’s announcement of the creation of a new national monument in Arizona—his fifth in ten months—isn’t going to be enough to offset the administration’s continuing support for fossil fuels. There is—or should be—concern on the parts of Democrats about the participation of younger Americans in the coming elections.

The risk isn’t so much whether young climate activists will vote for Biden and the Democratic ticket once they’re in the booth. The real risk their not showing up at all.

On with today’s ten.

Yes, it is hot enough for me. Global air and ocean temperatures soared to a record high in July, according to the EU’s climate change service Copernicus, deepening concern among climate scientists at a time when a spate of heat records suggest the planet has entered uncharted territory.

 July was found to be a whopping 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the average for the 1850-1900 period and 0.33 degrees Celsius warmer than the previous warmest month of July 2019.

Meanwhile, global average sea surface temperatures continued to rise in July, the EU’s climate monitor said, after a long period of unusually high temperatures stretching back to April. For the month as a whole, the planet’s average sea surface temperature was 0.51 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average. (CNBC)

Are farmers ready to go green? President Joe Biden’s Agriculture Department is pulling off a feat unimaginable a mere decade ago: gaining wide support within the conservative farming industry for a program to fight climate change.

The winning formula involves paying farmers to test out green practices, rather than forcing them to pay for excessive carbon emissions.

Biden officials are hoping their $3 billion initiative — which began doling out money this spring — will lay the groundwork for long-term buy-in for green farming from rural voters and American agribusiness, not to mention future investment from Congress and Wall Street. But they still need to prove it actually has an environmental impact and isn’t just a giveaway to Big Ag, as some climate activists fear. (POLITICO)

Is the Grass-ley greener?  Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa says he doesn’t anticipate the Senate marking up its version of the 2023 Farm Bill until after the current legislation expires in September.

During his call with reporters on Tuesday, Grassley said for the first time since the 1990’s the Senate Appropriations Committee has moved all 12 appropriations bills out of committee with bipartisan support.

The House, however, adjourned for its August recess before voting on the Ag Appropriations bill. (Brownfield Ag News)

That’s cold, bro’. It largely doesn’t matter what Mike Pence’s plans for the presidency are, given that his odds of being elected to that position next year are just a bit better than your odds of winning Powerball. Pence on Sunday did offer a useful articulation of the right’s climate policy — an articulation that recent polling reinforces.

Instead, he offered a greasy-spoon diner’s menu of distractions. During “our” administration (that is, when he was serving as Donald Trump’s vice president) there was $2-a-gallon gas, he said — a state of affairs that depended on the cratering of the economy from the coronavirus pandemic. Trump (who must be annoyed every time Pence adopts administration successes as his own) backed the country out of the Paris climate accord, but the nation might hit those goals anyway. (Washington Post)

How much longer will they put up with it? Moderate Republicans and those in competitive districts have largely lined up behind Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other GOP leaders as they have acquiesced to the evolving demands from hardline conservatives, The Hill’s Emily Brooks reports, but their patience is wearing thin. Democrats have already jumped on swing district Republicans for going along with some of the more controversial votes spearheaded by the party’s rightmost flank. Perhaps adding insult to injury, many of the messaging provisions they’ve been forced to take votes on are unlikely to make it into the final version of the bill approved by the Senate. 

“If we keep members in swing districts — we put them on the plank every single week, we’re gonna have huge problems. And it may be too late for that,” Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) said. “There’s only so much people can take before they say enough is enough.” (The Hill Morning Report)

Let the chips fall where they may. Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) is outlining his latest demands in the fight over appropriations and government spending, issuing an ultimatum to the Biden White House in exchange for his support on the must-pass legislation: the ouster of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

In a Dear Colleague letter sent out to lawmakers on Tuesday, Roy listed a number of demands the Texas Republican said must be met in order for him to support legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security or to vote for a continuing resolution ahead of the looming Sept. 30 deadline. Those demands include measures to tighten security at the southern border, which Roy argues is a “national crisis.”

“Enacting a CR would unacceptably mean continuing the funding level and policies of the disastrous FY 2023 omnibus, which Speaker [Kevin] McCarthy correctly argued perpetuates the border crisis,” Roy wrote. “Passing a full-year DHS appropriations bill without forcing the significant change necessary to secure the southern border is equally objectionable, even with some policy riders.” (Washington Examiner)

Line by line. After approving changes to help connect wind and solar to the grid, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission faces another daunting task: getting more power lines built.

The agency is weighing a rule that would ensure planning for transmission lines keeps pace with a changing energy resource mix — while helping to settle who should pay for lines that cross multiple states.

If finalized, the plan could spur the development of more large power lines near renewable energy, from remote locations in the sunny Southwest to offshore wind farms on the East Coast. Building more transmission is also key to helping the United States transition to a carbon-free grid by 2035 in line with Biden administration goals, according to the Department of Energy. (E&E News)

A monumental decision. President Joe Biden is expected to announce the creation of a new national monument in Arizona, making it the fifth monument designated by Biden in the last 10 months. The monument will encompass almost a million acres of land surrounding the Grand Canyon and will prohibit new uranium mining claims in the region. (Politico) 

The Biden administration is expected to announce this month the first grant winners of a multi-billion dollar competition to speed the development of a new clean technology industry: massive facilities that remove carbon dioxide from the sky.

Those awards for so-called direct air capture hubs could define the future of the nascent DAC (direct air capture) industry in the United States as well as the broader CO2 removal sector, experts say. Along with steep emissions cuts, large-scale carbon removal will be essential in the coming decades to avoid dangerously overheating the planet, according to climate scientists.

“This is a big deal. It’s going to be a lot of people’s first introduction to large-scale, technological carbon removal deployment,” said Sasha Stashwick, the director of tech policy at Carbon180, an advocacy group that’s involved in a feasibility study for a direct air capture project led by the University of California, Berkeley. (E&E News)

Out of thin air. U.S. power plant owners warned the Biden administration on Tuesday that its sweeping plan to slash carbon emissions from the electricity sector is unworkable, relying too heavily on costly technologies that are not yet proven at scale.

Top utility trade group the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) asked the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for revisions of the proposed power plant standards, which hinge on the widespread commercial availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and low-emissions green hydrogen, adding the agency's vision was "not legally or technically sound." (Reuters)

Slash but don’t burn. The U.S. government’s most ambitious plan ever to slash planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions from passenger vehicles faces skepticism both about how realistic it is and whether it goes far enough.

The Environmental Protection Agency in April announced new strict emissions limits that the agency says are vital to slowing climate change as people around the globe endure record-high temperatures, raging wildfires and intense storms.

The EPA says the industry could meet the limits if 67% of new-vehicle sales are electric by 2032, a pace the auto industry calls unrealistic. However, the new rule would not require automakers to boost electric vehicle sales directly. Instead, it sets emissions limits and allows automakers to choose how to meet them.

Note to readers: This is the free version of the Civil Notion newsletter. Please feel free to contact me to discuss how I might tailor a newsletter for your organization.

Lead image courtesy of Matt and Unsplash

The major themes of Today’s Ten are the continuing conflicts between Democrats and House Republicans over spending and efforts by China to find a way to keep supplying the U.S. with the materials, e.g., the precious metals needed for electric vehicle batteries, and products, e.g., photovoltaic panels, despite efforts of the White House and Congress to build out domestic industries. Supply chain problems over the past several years showed just how vulnerable many of the nation’s industries to globalization.

Provisions in legislation, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the Inflation Reduction and CHIPS and Science Acts, have provided incentives for re-shoring the manufacture of products that have been traditionally obtained from abroad—particularly China.

As the American Clean Power Association’s new report concludes, the IRA has generated $270+ billion in new private investments. The domestic clean energy and energy efficiency sectors have been real winners because of the IRA’s incentives.

The barriers to China and other nations are perhaps not as solid as they might be. China is looking to partner with South Korea through investments in battery manufacture. China has tried to work through Viet Nam and other Asian nations to avoid the prohibitions to entry into the U.S. of products manufactured through forced Uyghur labor, e.g., photovoltaic panels. Something they were not successful in doing.

Viet Nam on its own is looking to enter the U.S. electric vehicle market. Opening the U.S. to Vietnamese EVs, while keeping China out has certain diplomatic benefits. Whether Viet Nam will be allowed in without building U.S. plants is an open question.

The other central theme in Today’s Ten is the continuing fight between Republicans and Democrats over spending. The drama is mostly in the House and its major actors continue to be the right and far-right of center Republicans who appear out for revenge.

Unsurprisingly, House Republican appropriators are attempting to direct more of the fed’s funds to red states. They are also attempting to cut out the clean energy and energy efficiency provisions of the IRA—something red states may not want them to do. Even before the efforts of Republican appropriators in the current battle, red states have profited more than blue states from the IRA. Many of the new battery plants, for example, are in largely Republican states, e.g., Texas, Florida, and Georgia.

According to Business Insider, “red states are reaping the benefits of Democrats’ climate law much more than the Democrats themselves, with red states claiming more IRA funds and installing more wind and solar power than Democratic-leaning states in 2022.” Also, according to the publication: “Billions of dollars of new clean energy investment has been announced for solar, electric vehicle and battery manufacturing in Georgia and other southern states since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in August, leading to this swathe of states being nicknamed the ‘battery belt.’”

It’s unlikely that the right and far-right members of the Republican House conference will prevail in their efforts of taking money away from the IRA and the other acts passed by the last Congress. The short- term problem for Congress and the White House is keeping the government open starting the new fiscal year starting on October 1^st.

Here are Today’s Ten.

Politics makes for strange bedfellows? Liberal environmentalists and conservative landowners, led by the former congressman Steve King, are pressuring Republican candidates to oppose three Midwestern pipelines.

That meeting in June between a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican who lost his seat in Congress in 2020 after incendiary racist comments was the beginning of a left-right alliance that is trying to push the debate of the pipeline to the forefront of the heated G.O.P. presidential caucuses. (New York Times)

Hardly surprising, but very disappointing. The Group of 20 (G20) major nations failed on Friday to agree on concrete targets to cut dangerous emissions, releasing only a statement that dismissed current measures to address climate change as "insufficient".

The impasse - the latest in a string of inconclusive international conferences - came days after scientists again raised the alarm, saying human-induced climate change has played an "absolutely overwhelming" role in the extreme heatwaves that have swept across North America, Europe and China. (Reuters)

China intends to stay in the US game. Chinese battery materials firms are ramping up investment in South Korea, announcing projects worth at least $4.4 billion this year to try to meet U.S. electric vehicle (EV) tax credit rules aimed at lowering reliance on China's supply chains.

The deals follow the introduction of the U.S.'s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which requires at least 40% of the value of critical minerals used in an auto battery to be sourced from the United States or a free trade partner to qualify for a $3,750 tax credit per vehicle.

The IRA, designed to wean the U.S. off the Chinese supply chain for electric vehicles (EVs), will also eventually bar tax credits if any EV battery components were manufactured by a "foreign entity of concern", a provision aimed at China. (Reuters)

Everyone wants a piece of the U.S. markets. Vietnamese electric vehicle maker VinFast is planning to list in the United States next month via a blank-cheque company after the Securities and Exchange Commission gave the go ahead to its proposed business combination.

VinFast, which began operations in 2019, is gearing up to expand in the U.S., where it hopes its planned listing as well as a car plant to be built in North Carolina can boost its ability to compete with legacy automakers and startups.

The EV maker had filed for an initial public offering in the U.S. to list on the Nasdaq in December last year, but in May it announced plans to list through a merger with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Black Spade Acquisition Co (BSAQ.A). (Reuters)

More China v. U.S. The U.S. is waging a global charm offensive to obtain the minerals it needs to replace fossil fuels with cleaner energy. Its latest target is a resource-rich country wedged between China and Russia, two U.S. adversaries.

Mongolia — nicknamed “Minegolia” by some academics due to its abundant reserves of copper, gold and coal — hosted a handful of American officials on a mission in June to ease the United States’ dependence on China for the natural resources at the heart of several clean energy technologies.

The trip, the second for a senior State Department official this year, sheds light on U.S. efforts to forge pacts with countries that could supply American manufacturers ramping up their industrial production of solar and wind farms, and millions of electric vehicles. (E&E News)

IRA leverage is impressive. The American Clean Power Association (ACP) released data showing that unprecedented federal support has led to the announcement of private investments totaling $271 billion in domestic clean energy projects and manufacturing facilities over the past 12 months, read more in our press release. This exceeds the combined clean energy investments made over the previous eight years combined.

 The latest Clean Energy Investing in America report details the extent of the clean energy renaissance spreading across the country since federal clean energy incentives were signed into law last August. Once completed, these investments and projects will strengthen our energy independence, improve air quality, and support one million American clean energy jobs. (American Clean Power)

Can they spend fast enough? The next few months will be critical for the success or failure of the biggest environmental program in last year's climate, tax and health care law: the $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund.

While Republicans are proposing to rescind large portions of the fund in fiscal 2024 appropriations bills, the EPA is working to enlist organizations that will be tasked with putting the money into action, particularly in communities that have suffered disproportionately from environmental degradation.

The EPA laid out plans for divvying up the fund through three separate grant competitions. Groups have until Sept. 26 to apply for grants from the $7 billion "Solar for All" program and the deadline is Oct. 12 to seek funds from the other two tranches: a $14 billion fund for clean technology projects and a $6 billion fund for developing clean energy in disadvantaged communities.

Finally, the $7 billion Solar for All fund will be divided among 60 programs run by states, territories, tribes, municipalities and nonprofits providing financing and technical assistance for residential solar projects in disadvantaged communities. 

The process will be conducted amid vocal criticism from congressional Republicans. A bill to repeal the fund was included in a package of energy bills approved by the House in March. The bill's sponsor, Rep. Gary Palmer, R-Ala., said during a markup in the Energy and Commerce Committee that the program was a "slush fund," and the committee said in its majority report that the fund would be used to "pursue financing with limited oversight and will conflict with taxpayer interests." (Roll Call)

Payback is a b*tch. The majority of states would lose earmarked funds in the House GOP-drafted appropriations bills compared with the versions House Democrats wrote last year. But 16 mostly deep-red states would come out ahead.

The lucky 16 would see their haul grow by over $915 million — leaving the rest to see nearly $1.8 billion evaporate, a CQ Roll Call analysis found.

Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma combined account for over half of the increase, boosting their share of earmarks in the fiscal 2024 bills to 10 percent, compared with less than 3 percent a year earlier. (Roll Call)

Compromise doesn’t come easily. John Podesta, the White House senior adviser for clean energy innovation, signaled that the Biden administration could phase in new hydrogen tax credit requirements in an effort to find a middle ground between competing interests. The Treasury Department is currently drafting guidance for the credit -- worth up to $3 per kilogram of green hydrogen and could be released in the next few weeks -- that has stirred up a lobbying frenzy among environmentalists, energy companies and manufacturers. (Bloomberg) 

Soon there will be no insuring the future. The couple, in their late 60s, are frozen in this “hell,” Ed says, because their insurance company, United Property and Casualty, ignored their claims for months after the hurricane and then severely underpaid them, before going insolvent earlier this year.

UPC, the ninth property insurer in Florida to go insolvent since 2021, and the largest to do so in 15 years, left many of its Florida customers in a similar nightmare, facing what is predicted to be a powerful hurricane season with still unfixed, hazardous homes, drained life savings and, in some cases, no insurance to protect them.

UPC hemorrhaged money over the past six years, in large part because of costly claims from a series of major hurricanes. During this time, the company began to cut insurance adjusters’ damage estimates, and underpay and ignore increasingly desperate policyholders, according to a Washington Post investigation based on interviews with nearly two dozen people, including those who worked for UPC, policyholders, insurance experts and a review of hundreds of documents from regulators, adjusters, court cases, financial filings and other sources. (Washington Post)

Lead image courtesy of  Ahmed Badawy on Unsplash

Congress is on its summer recess and won’t be returning until September 11^th for the House and the 12^th for the Senate. They left Capital City without having made significant progress on the FY24 appropriations, which begins just seconds after midnight on October 1^st.

Should Congress fail to pass either a continuing resolution or final legislation, the federal government will be closed for business. Most on Capitol Hill would like to avoid the melodrama and just pass the needed legislation. Members of the House Freedom Caucus have other ideas.

Still fuming over the debt ceiling/budget agreement between Speaker McCarthy and President Biden—and passed by Congress—the far-right faction of House Republicans is to pass appropriations bills significantly below the sums in the agreement, as well as adding culture war language, e.g., banning abortions in the military. Based on their support of Trump’s having shut down the government over his boarder wall, it’s believed HFC will have few qualms of closing the government to make their points.

To be fair, the Senate appropriations committees have passed all 12 appropriations bills and in a bipartisan manner. At some point, the conflicts between the House Freedom Caucus have to come to a head. Closing down the government may finally be the straw that breaks HFC’s hold on the Republican House.

I’ll be reporting on this often in September.

Another theme to look for in the coming months will be talk of the possibility that there will be at least two third party candidates for president in the 2024 election. One possibility is that Joe Manchin (D-WV) will decide not to seek re-election to the Senate but will run for president under the banner of the No Labels party.

Not just a rumor is the candidacy of Cornel West under the Green Party banner. West is well-respected by Republicans and Democrats. Although having no chance for election, West like Manchin singularly or together could take enough votes to deny Biden the election.

On with today’s ten.

Take it back, why don’t you? Thirty-nine Senate Republicans, including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), today will ask the Environmental Protection Agency to withdraw its proposed limits on planet-warming emissions from power plants.

 In the letter to EPA Administrator Michael Regan, the Republicans argue that the agency has overstepped its legal authority to curb greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel-burning power plants, which rank as the nation’s second-biggest contributor to global warming.

 “The EPA has again grossly misinterpreted the scope of authority Congress granted under Section 111 of the Clean Air Act by proposing a rule that would … transform our nation’s power sector with neither a clear and explicit congressional authorization nor adequate process. (Washington Post)

Two’s plenty. Progressive lawmakers are voicing concerns over Cornel West’s third-party bid, worried that a figure they respect could cripple President Biden’s prospects in 2024.

 West launched a Green Party campaign earlier this year to inject more leftism into the election cycle. He’s challenging both the Democratic and Republican establishments, raging against them in equal measure, and raising the stakes of being a spoiler in the fall. (The Hill)

What’s the cost? Federal agencies would be required to do a full accounting of how their decisions affect ecosystems the public depends on under a draft guidance that the White House will release on August 1, 2023.

The Office of Management and Budget and Office of Science and Technology Policy guidance targets the benefits people derive from forests, wetlands and waterways.

While ecosystems have sometimes appeared in the cost-benefit assessments that agencies must write to support their rules, policies and projects, there has never been a governmentwide directive or guidance for doing that accounting.

First floated in April, the administration’s plans for a regulatory overhaul focus on how agencies tally the costs and benefits of a broad swath of actions — from setting environmental standards and leasing decisions to procurement and construction. (E&E News)

Sue the ba*tards. Liberal senators are calling on Attorney General Merrick Garland to bring lawsuits against the biggest fossil fuel industry for what they say is a coordinated effort to mislead consumers and downplay climate change in pursuit of profits amid record-breaking temperatures.

In a letter the climate hawks called on the Department of Justice to file suits against ExxonMobil, Shell, and possibly other fossil fuel companies, which they allege have violated “federal racketeering laws, truth in advertising laws, consumer protection laws, and potentially other laws.”

“The fossil fuel industry has had scientific evidence about the dangers of climate change and the role that burning fossil fuels play in increasing global temperatures for more than 50 years,” the letter reads. “Despite these companies’ knowledge about climate change and the role their industry was playing in driving carbon emissions, they chose to participate in a decades-long, carefully coordinated campaign of misinformation to obfuscate climate science and convince the public that fossil fuels are not the primary driver of climate change.”

Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Jeff Merkley(D-OR), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and Ed Markey (D-MA) signed the letter.

What they’re asking for: The climate hawks are asking for the Department of Justice to join forces with partners at the Federal Trade Commission, and other law enforcement agencies to file suits against the major players that may have participated in the alleged misinformation campaign and contributed to the fossil fuel industry’s influence on climate change. (Washington Examiner)

Rising seethe levels. Congressional Republicans are seething about the Biden administration’s plans to change how the government reviews major energy infrastructure projects ranging from oil and gas pipelines to solar installations.

The White House released its highly anticipated proposal last week to overhaul how the government reviews projects under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).

The Biden administration billed the changes as a compromise between those pushing to get projects online faster and those concerned about climate and pollution impacts.

But GOP lawmakers slammed the White House approach, calling it a “dishonest” and “sneaky” attempt to favor renewable energy over fossil fuels. (E&E News)

One, two, tree. In an effort to slash carbon emissions and provide relief from extreme heat, governments across the nation and globally have pledged to plant trees. But the US is not equipped with the tree seedlings to furnish its own plans, according to a new study.

US tree nurseries do not grow nearly enough trees to bring ambitious planting schemes to fruition, and they also lack the plant species diversity those plans require, according to research published in the journal Bioscience.

For the study, 13 scientists examined 605 plant nurseries across 20 northern states. Only 56 of them – or less than 10% – grow and sell seedlings in the volumes needed for conservation and reforestation.

Crocodile tears for sure. Former President Donald Trump weighed in on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's recent health scare—and if his response was any indication, he doesn't seem to be all that concerned.

In an interview with Breitbart published on Sunday, Trump said he had seen the video from last week of McConnell freezing up for several seconds in front of reporters before being led away.

"I thought it was sad," said Trump, before immediately pivoting to attacking McConnell. "At the same time, I think it's a shame he went so far out to give Green New Deal money to [President Joe Biden] and Democrats." Trump hits Mitch McConnell for 'destroying our oceans' with 'windmills' when asked about the GOP leader's health scare (Business Insider)

Not the way the young should act. Something is happening among young voters in America — even if, to paraphrase the old Bob Dylan song, we don’t know what it is.

Consider: Youth turnout exploded during the 2018 midterm elections under President Donald Trump. Then in 2020, energized opposition to Trump among young voters was critical to his defeat. And in the 2022 midterms, surging youth participation helped fend off the widely predicted “red wave.” Even some Republicans fear that expanding youth populations in swing states pose a long-term threat to the GOP.

New data supplied to me by the Harvard Youth Poll sheds light on the powerful undercurrents driving these developments. Young voters have shifted in a markedly progressive direction on multiple issues that are deeply important to them: Climate change, gun violence, economic inequality and LGBTQ+ rights. (Washington Post)

Is it never enough for you? The Department of Transportation proposed a more aggressive fuel economy rule that aims to bring the fleetwide average to around 46 miles per gallon by 2032, in real-world terms. The proposal would require automakers to improve their fuel efficiency by 2 percent annually starting in model year 2027 for passenger cars and 4 percent for light trucks. (Politico)  

We think you should stay put. A coalition of environmental groups announced plans Monday to file a lawsuit to try to block Virginia from withdrawing from a multistate compact designed to reduce greenhouse gases.

The Southern Environmental Law Center filed notice with state regulators indicating the coalition’s intention to sue in Fairfax County Circuit Court to keep Virginia in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.

Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin made withdrawal from the compact a priority, citing its impact on the cost of electricity. The State Corporation Commission has estimated the typical monthly bill could increase by $2.00 to $2.50 for the years 2027 to 2030. (AP)

Lead image courtesy of  Tom Podmore on Unsplash

The passage of the oddly named Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) took a different approach to moving the nation a sustainable low-carbon economy, as quickly as possible. It is decidedly more carrots than sticks than energy and environment legislation of the past.

Hundreds of millions of dollars are flowing from federal coffers to states, cities, and private sector companies to create a domestic clean energy industry. It appears to be working. Every week announcements of new projects are being made.

Foreign companies are building manufacturing plants throughout the U.S. Tens of thousands of new jobs are being created. The Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, reports that the IRA is not only expected to create at least 1.3 million new jobs by 2030; it has already created more than 142,000 clean energy jobs across the United States.

The IRA is presenting a dilemma for Republican politicians at the national, state, and local levels—many of whom have followed the lead of the former president—Donald Trump—in bad-mouthing climate science and what the transition to a low carbon economy would mean for the health and well-being of the nation. However, it hasn’t stopped them from availing themselves of federal funds to solve a problem they refuse to recognize. In Iowa, Trump called the Green New Deal an atrocity and promised to do something about it in his first day back in the White House.

How long can these deniers and doomsday prophets take with one hand while condemning with the other? Texas Governor Abbott continues to blame solar and wind for any problems and interruptions of electric supplies when the opposite is true.

Forbes reports that without solar, wind, and grid-scale battery storage, Texans would have trouble keeping cool during the hottest days ever recorded. Texas is expecting to receive over $66 billion in IRA funding.

How long will it be before their verbal assaults and deliberate misinformation campaigns are recognized by voters as the lies they are?

A question for another day. Here’s today’s ten.

****

Domesticating the solar industry. Canadian solar panel maker Heliene is planning a major expansion of its U.S. manufacturing operations with a new Minnesota factory that will produce both modules and cells, its chief executive told (Reuters)

A precocious policy. The U.S. climate law that passed one year ago offers a 30 percent discount off this installation via a tax credit, and that’s helping push clean energy even into places where coal still provides cheap electricity. (AP)

Take the money and run—but where to? Although it was drafted and passed exclusively by Democrats in Washington, the fate of the law will hinge in large part on the decisions of state and local Republican officials. green funding is splintering a Republican Party that remains skeptical about renewable energy — and hostile to Biden.

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and U.S. Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) are among the GOP officials throwing their weight behind the electric vehicle battery sector. But other Republicans, such as conservatives in the Texas Capitol, are going in the opposite direction, pushing to repeal subsidies for solar and wind projects even though renewable energy has proved essential for the state’s electrical grid. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and senior Republicans on Capitol Hill leadership have pushed for repealing the renewable energy credits in the Inflation Reduction Act — though resistance from members of his caucus whose districts are already benefiting from the credits led him to drop some of those demands.

As the number of proposed renewable energy projects soars, so has the backlash. State and local lawmakers blocked 138 solar and wind projects last year, more than doubling the total of 54 from the year before, according to the Renewable Rejection Database, which tracks local governments’ approvals of renewables. So far this year, state and local governments have rejected more than 70 proposals, the database found. (Washington Post)

You say cut, I say add. House Republican leaders are moving toward deeper cuts in the fiscal 2024 appropriations bills in an effort to win over votes from hardline conservatives as bills start to move to the House floor next week.

A number of Freedom Caucus members and other conservatives have raised objections to the Appropriations Committee's move to allow $115 billion in spending above the fiscal 2022 topline, offset by rescissions of previously appropriated but unspent funding.

With the add-ons, new fiscal 2024 spending would come to $1.586 trillion — still below the caps in the debt ceiling law, but nonetheless a level the conservatives view as unacceptable. By the same token, GOP leaders can't lose support from the more centrist wing of the party on close votes, with most if not all Democrats expected to oppose the bills. 

Senate appropriators, meanwhile, were moving in the opposite direction from their House counterparts. (Roll Call)

Can we afford it? U.S. government agencies are targeting buying 9,500 electric vehicles in the 2023 budget year, but face supply issues and higher costs, a federal report said on Wednesday. (Reuters)

The conservative Club for Growth is pledging to spend $20 million to ensure that the House Republicans who nearly cost House Speaker Kevin McCarthy the speakership stay in their seats. 

Prop ‘em up. Politico obtained a memo from Club for Growth's President David McIntosh informing donors that the group planned to prop up what he's labeling the 'Patriot 20' in both primaries and general elections next year. 

Prominent members of the group include Reps. Lauren Boebert - who nearly lost her 2022 race to Democrat Adam Frisch - Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, Andy Biggs, freshman lawmaker Anna Paulina Luna, Byron Donalds and Scott Perry, the current chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. (Daily Mail)

Greed wins. House Republicans are proposing to significantly increase federal spending on earmarks in their Agriculture and Energy-Water bills, even as they seek broad nondefense cuts elsewhere. (E&E News)

If and but. The United States is within reach of cutting its carbon pollution in half by 2035 — if it’s able to install a massive number of renewable energy projects. Or the nation could fall far short of its international climate promises and reduce its emissions by as little as 29 percent in 2030 — if fossil fuel prices remain low, economic growth surges and clean electricity installations stumble, according to a report released Thursday by the Rhodium Group.

Rhodium’s report highlights the climate law’s potential, and its limitations. Most U.S. emissions reductions in the coming years are expected to come from power plants. Planet-warming pollution from the power sector could fall between 45 and 74 percent from current levels by 2035, Rhodium found. That’s owing in large part to passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which contains $369 billion in clean energy incentives and is designed to remove economic barriers for wind and solar facilities. (E&E News)

Stopping the leaks. The Biden administration is doling out up to $1.55 billion in funding to help the oil and gas sector monitor and reduce methane emissions, along with providing technical assistance for companies trying to slash emissions from leaks and daily operations. The Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy – the latter of which is offering states $350 million to help companies to find and reduce methane emissions from low-producing wells – will invite bids from companies, communities and tribal governments for technology deployment and implementation of the best practices for reducing emissions in the sector. (Reuters) 

Hush up your mouth. Not long ago, the world’s biggest companies were making splashy promises to tackle climate change. Even those in the business of selling fossil fuels — like BP and Shell — were vowing to slash their emissions. Amazon named an iconic Seattle sports center ​“Climate Pledge Arena” so neither hockey nor basketball fans could ignore the company’s promise to zero out its emissions by 2040.

But the past year has brought a change of pace, with BP, Amazon and other companies scaling back some of their targets. Amid this shift, another trend has emerged: Some companies are choosing not to publicize their climate goals, a strategy that’s being called ​“greenhushing.” (Grist)

Image courtesy of bern dittrich and Unsplash

Thomas Edsall writing in the New York Times said that “divisions between Democrats and Republicans have expanded far beyond the traditional fault lines based on race, education, gender, the urban-rural divide and economic ideology.”

Edsall goes on to say that “Polarization now encompasses sharp disagreements over the significance of patriotism and nationalism, as well as a fundamental split between those seeking to restore perceived past glories and those who embrace the future.”

With polarization comes gridlock when a single party doesn’t control Congress and the White House. Today’s ten highlight the stark differences between Republicans and Democrats on climate change and what needs to be done about it.

Former president Trump calls the Green New Deal “an atrocity” and promises to tear it up on his first day in office—should he be elected again. Trump and many Republicans use the Green New Deal as a kind of shorthand—not just for climate-related policies-- for socialism, communism, anti-Americanism, and any other “isms” they believe are on the woke agenda of the Democrats.

The truth is there was never a Green New Deal (GND). Although talked about, the GND was officially nothing more than a congressional resolution. It lacked substance. There’s nothing to tear up because there is nothing there.

What is real, however, are the three historic pieces of legislation that was passed by the 117^th Congress—the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and CHIPS and Science Acts. Although the IRA was passed along party lines, the other two had Republican support.

What’s most frustrating to climate champions is not so much Republican opposition to various pieces of legislation. It is their refusal to recognize not just the problem—but the success the three bills are already having on their states and their districts.

The work of the 117^th Congress is responsible for tens of thousands of new jobs, the growth of domestic industries like autos, batteries, chip manufacturing, and the list goes on. An irony that seems lost on Trump and others is that red states are profiting more than blue states from the multiple programs contained in the various acts.

The 118^th Congress will not be passing any bold new climate initiatives. In fact, the opposite is true. House Republicans in particular have their knives out in hopes of slashing the appropriations, policies and programs particularly those in the Democrats-only IRA.

Climate change and clean energy are going to be a prominent part of the debates going into the 2024 elections because Trump and others use the Green New Deal as a shorthand for all that’s wrong with Joe Biden and the Democrats.

I believe that after years of violent weather, record-breaking heat, and the visible growth of a domestic clean energy industry that voters—not all but some—are going to reject the unsubstantiated claims of candidates that Earth’s warming is nothing to worry about.

****

Slice and dice? House Republican leaders are moving toward deeper cuts in the fiscal 2024 appropriations bills in an effort to win over votes from hard-line conservatives as bills start to move to the House floor next week.

During a Wednesday night meeting, members of leadership and the House Freedom Caucus agreed to trim the bills which have been moving through the Appropriations Committee to get as close to the enacted fiscal 2022 level of $1.471 trillion as possible, according to sources familiar with the meeting. 

A number of Freedom Caucus members and other conservatives have raised objections to the Appropriations Committee's move to allow $115 billion in spending above the fiscal 2022 top line, offset by rescissions of previously appropriated but unspent funding.

With the add-ons, new fiscal 2024 spending would come to $1.586 trillion — still below the caps in the debt ceiling law, but nonetheless a level the conservatives view as unacceptable. By the same token, GOP leaders can't lose support from the more centrist wing of the party on close votes, with most if not all Democrats expected to oppose the bills. 

Senate appropriators, meanwhile, were moving in the opposite direction from their House counterparts. (Roll Call)

Plugged in and raring to go. U.S. government agencies are targeting buying 9,500 electric vehicles in the 2023 budget year, but face supply issues and higher costs, a federal report said on Wednesday. (Reuters)

Courting a different outcome. Lawmakers from both parties are calling on the Supreme Court to intervene over the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which would stretch from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia, but it has faced legal opposition from environmentalists. (The Hill)

Promises, promises. When Joe Biden was a presidential candidate in 2020, he pledged to ban oil and gas drilling on public land, pump federal money into clean energy, and achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.

Three years later, the country’s emissions trajectory remains highly uncertain.

The United States is within reach of cutting its carbon pollution in half by 2035 — if it’s able to install a massive number of renewable energy projects. Or the nation could fall far short of its international climate promises and reduce its emissions by as little as 29 percent in 2030 — if fossil fuel prices remain low, economic growth surges and clean electricity installations stumble, according to a report released Thursday by the Rhodium Group. (E&E News)

A new report from the Manhattan Institute disputes the climate and cost benefits of the U.S. push for electric vehicles adoption, saying that the push comes with many unknown variables—including a potential jump in consumer costs and additional strain on grids.

The study’s author, Mark Mills, asserted that greenhouse gas reductions from higher EV penetration rates are based largely on “assumptions, guesses, and ambiguities,” and that bans on ICE-powered vehicles could risk “draconian impediments to affordable and convenient driving and a massive misallocation of capital in the world’s $4 trillion automotive industry.” Read more on the study. (Washington Examiner)

They’d rather do it themselves. Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared to rebuff U.S. climate envoy John Kerry as he wrapped his three-day visit to Beijing, stressing at a national conference yesterday that the rate and intensity at which it achieves its climate goals should be determined internally, rather than by outside influences.

Xi said Beijing is “unwavering” on its dual climate goals—which seek to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030, and achieve full carbon neutrality by the year 2060. “But,” he said, “the pathway and means for reaching this goal, and the tempo and intensity, should be and must be determined by ourselves, and never under the sway of others.”

One foreign affairs adviser to Xi also told Kerry yesterday that China-U.S. climate cooperation “cannot be separated from the broader environment of Chinese-U.S. relations.” (Washington Examiner)

“$270 billion are the losses from all global natural disasters in 2022, according to Munich Re, which estimates that roughly 55 percent of that total wasn’t insured.” (Bloomberg)

Atrocious, I say. Former President Trump says in a new campaign video that if he returns to the White House, he would end President Biden’s “Green New Deal atrocities” on his first day, despite the measure never being signed into law.

Trump accused Biden of “waging war” on the U.S. auto industry with his “ridiculous Green New Deal crusade.”

“If Biden’s assault is not stopped, American auto production will be totally dead,” the former president said in the video released Thursday. “That’s why I am going to terminate these Green New Deal atrocities on day one.”

Vvroom. Vietnamese automaker VinFast said on Wednesday it would start construction of a $4 billion electric vehicle factory in North Carolina next week as part of its push to expand in the United States market. The manufacturing facility could become one of the largest economic development projects in North Carolina's history, with the potential to hire up to 7,500 employees this decade. (Axios)

Shrugs all around. Heat waves, wildfire smoke and floods have swept across the U.S. and the world this summer, but extreme weather events aren’t swaying House Republicans on climate change — at least not yet.

Indeed, while scientists have widely linked the recent alarming weather to global warming, many Republicans are still not sold on the science of climate change. And even those who do believe say concerns about the climate crisis are overblown.

Many Republicans have moved away from outright climate science denial, advocating instead for an “all of the above” strategy on energy and innovation rather than regulation. While many Republicans say they believe in climate change to an extent, most say that fossil fuels should not be curtailed. In fact, they say, fossil fuels should be promoted. (E&E News Daily)

Shackles? The nation is baking in a record heat wave that is serving as a reminder of how climate change is rapidly affecting human life — from endangering outdoor workers to raising existential questions about communities at sea level.    

None of the 11 major candidates for president is offering significant warnings about the issue. Most have acknowledged the existence of human-caused climate change, and some have taken action to combat it while holding lower offices. 

The candidates are putting more of an emphasis on drilling for oil and natural gas than on taking steps to control emissions.  

None of them has a dedicated climate change subsection on the issues page of their campaign website — although biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s economic plan includes the bullet point “abandon the climate cult and unshackle nuclear energy” — and none of the candidates with a dedicated page for energy policy advocates scaling back fossil fuel development. (The Hill)

Down on the farm. House Democrats are considering how firmly to dig in on farm bill issues they care about as they anticipate partisan fights over food stamps, climate change and other matters as lawmakers approach the expiration of the current law.

Representative Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., the chairman of the House Agriculture and Nutrition Task Force said there are limits to how far the Democrats are willing to compromise as they seek to influence the bill that sets farm policy for about five years. The current law expires September 30th.

"If we're going to get a farm bill, it has to be inclusive. At some point, we're going to have to work together," he said Thursday.

“I think now is the time for Democrats to look seriously at what our values are as Democrats,” he said, adding that there is particular concern “for those individuals who don’t have the lobbyists or other things but they are Americans. They deserve just and fair consideration. There are a lot of Democrats who are not going to support a farm bill that is punitive.”

Image courtesy of Unsplash

Congress has just days before it goes on its summer recess. The House is again dominating the political news. Speaker McCarthy continues to yield to the demands of the House Freedom Caucus, whose members refuse to stand by the deal McCarthy made with President Biden on the debt ceiling and budget resolution.

Most of the legislation coming out of House committees reflects the larger culture war going on in the nation. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has become ground-zero in the culture wars. Freedom Caucus members and other far-right House conservatives put provisions in the bill that restricts the Pentagon policies on abortion access, medical care for transgender troops and diversity.

The NDAA is generally a bipartisan affair. This year Democrats and even moderate Republicans are concerned that the bill has become a MAGA affair.

The bill has no chance of passing the Senate. The Senate will pass a much more moderate—likely less MAGA—version after which it will go to a conference committee. Members of the House conference committee include Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).

There’s a battle going on within Republican ranks on Capitol Hill as well as between the parties. There are real concerns that far-right Republicans are willing to risk shutting the government down until their demands are met.

Other major battles include the farm bill, which again looks like it will contain MAGA provisions that have no chance of passing either Congress or the White House.

There is likely to come a time when establishment Republican conservatives and moderates say enough is enough. Whether this will mark a move to the middle or just away from the far-right is anyone’s guess at this point.

In the meantime, look for more gridlock and drama on Capitol Hill for the days remaining before they all go back to their districts.

A whale of a tale. Energy industry uses whale activists to aid anti-wind farm strategy, experts say experts. Unwitting whale advocates and rightwing thinktanks create the impression that offshore wind energy projects endanger cetaceans. (The Guardian)

Say it ain’t so. The White House’s grand vision of a thriving domestic semiconductor industry could be undermined by environmental permitting rules, according to Senate lawmakers and regulatory specialists.

No need to defend against climate change. House Republicans on Friday muscled through the annual defense policy bill, including one provision that would block the Defense Department from implementing President Joe Biden’s climate orders.

Numerous Democratic proposals to make the Pentagon go even further on climate programs did not make the cut. Such was the case for most Republican amendments to limit the department’s environmental actions.

The exception was the amendment from Representative Chip Roy (R-TX) that would prevent the Pentagon from using funds to implement seven of Biden’s executive orders on climate. That amendment was adopted narrowly, 217-216.  (E&E News)

What a gas. Language blocking a ban on gas stoves has been incorporated into a bipartisan Senate appropriations bill, giving it a significant chance to ultimately become law. 

The bill would prevent the Consumer Product Safety Commission from banning the products was incorporated into a funding bill for “Financial Services and General Government”

However, provisions blocking a gas stove ban would likely not face significant opposition in the House, which has already passed a bill to do so as a standalone measure. 

Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who sponsored the gas stove amendment, celebrated its inclusion in the bill in a written statement. 

“It’s past time for Washington bureaucrats to stop overreaching and telling American families how to cook their dinner,” he said. (The Hill)

Pipe dreams. The developer of the Mountain Valley Pipeline filed an emergency application with the Supreme Court, calling on the court to reverse a lower court’s orders to freeze construction on the project. The developer is asking the Supreme Court to decide whether the lower court, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, had the authority to take action against the project after Congress’ debt ceiling deal took away judicial jurisdiction over permits required for the project to move forward. (E&E News) 

Just an excuse. Technologies to capture CO2 emissions are no substitute for a drastic cut in fossil fuels and their use should be limited, a group of countries warned on Friday, as tensions grow over the role of climate technologies ahead of this year's COP28 summit.

The European Union and 17 nations including Germany, France, Chile, New Zealand and climate-vulnerable island states the Marshall Islands and Micronesia, said the focus should be on phasing out fossil fuels. (Reuters)

Down on the farm. House Democrats are considering how firmly to dig in on farm bill issues they care about as they anticipate partisan fights over food stamps, climate change and other matters as lawmakers approach the expiration of the current law.

Representative Bennie Thompson (D-MS) the chairman of the House Agriculture and Nutrition Task Force that held its final forum July 13, said there are limits to how far the Democrats are willing to compromise as they seek to influence the bill that sets farm policy for about five years. The current law expires Sept. 30.

"If we're going to get a farm bill, it has to be inclusive. At some point, we're going to have to work together," he said.

“I think now is the time for Democrats to look seriously at what our values are as Democrats,” he said, adding that there is particular concern “for those individuals who don’t have the lobbyists or other things but they are Americans. They deserve just and fair consideration. There are a lot of Democrats who are not going to support a farm bill that is punitive.”

Representative Jim McGovern, (D-MA), a task force member and a longtime advocate for policies to deal with hunger, was blunter about a clash between Democrats and Republicans over policy and priorities. "Democrats, he said, “need to be on the offensive and drawing lines in the sand now. We can’t settle for the lesser of two evils," he said Thursday.

The task force plans to deliver recommendations to other Democrats by the August recess as they prepare for an expected Republican push to chip away at a major nutrition program and to reverse efforts to mitigate climate change. (Roll Call)

What a gas. While the Biden administration touts the success of the Inflation Reduction Act and its other clean energy accomplishments, a contradictory trend is quietly unfolding: The U.S. is exporting record-breaking amounts of liquefied natural gas. In April, the country sent more LNG abroad than in any other month, ever — a milestone that contrasts sharply with the global need to stop burning planet-warming fossil fuels. (Canary Media)

Who knows best? The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected a bid to block construction of the Thacker Pass lithium mine along the Nevada-Oregon border, despite conservationists saying that the operation will lead to polluted groundwater and destroy wildlife habitats. The judges generally deferred to the expertise of the Bureau of Land Management, which granted Lithium Nevada approval for the mine in 2021. (The Associated Press)

Terminating global warming. Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger met top Republicans, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and pushed them to do a better job of talking about climate-change policy amid a summer of record-breaking heat waves and wildfires, according to people familiar with the matter. (Bloomberg)